Gut vs Data: D2C brands experiment with direct creator deals, agencies focus on strategy

The rise of direct creator outreach among D2C brands is exposing a deeper fault line in influencer marketing: instinct-led shortlisting versus outcome-driven selection. While brands are increasingly bypassing agencies to discover creators, industry leaders say this shift is less about efficiency and more about experimentation, one that begins with gut but struggles to scale.

Even as brands double down on direct outreach, data-led benchmarks are beginning to shape creator discovery, particularly in regional markets. Experts pointed out that brands are focusing on signals like 8–12% engagement in regional languages and growth trends to guide shortlisting, even as these tools largely remain limited to surface-level scans and fall short on strategic fit.

At the same time, direct deals are not without friction. While they can sometimes fetch 20–30% better rates, they also lead to pricing inconsistency, unclear deliverables, and delayed payments, highlighting the growing need for structure as campaigns scale.  

Pranav Panpalia, Founder of OpraahFx (an influencer marketing and talent management agency), said, “At a surface level, most D2C brands that are doing it themselves are going by gut more than they'd like to admit. They'll look at follower count, check if the engagement seems real, and see if the creator has posted about something similar before. That's the shortlist.”

He added that while access to data has improved, interpretation remains the real gap. “What they're missing is context; why a creator's audience trusts them, what that audience actually buys, whether the creator has said yes to ten other brands in the same month. The tools exist, but knowing what to do with the data is the actual skill.”

This instinct-heavy approach works in early stages but breaks under scale, said Devarshi Shah, Chief Growth Officer of OML.

“The honest answer is, there is no one way. And that’s exactly the problem,” Shah noted. “Some founders are discovering creators the same way consumers do. Scrolling Instagram, watching YouTube, picking up on trends… some are just going with instinct. ‘I like this creator, my team likes this creator, let’s try it.’”

However, he pointed to a clear inflection point. “Because the question changes from ‘Do I like this creator?’ to ‘Is this creator actually driving business outcomes?’ And that’s where you need a lot more rigor.”

Industry voices suggest that as this shift happens, the role of agencies is not diminishing but being redefined.

“I think the agencies that are losing relevance deserve to,” Panpalia said. “If your only value is that you have creator contacts and you take a cut, that model was always going to get disrupted. Brands figured out Instagram DMs a long time ago.”

At the same time, he underscored rising complexity in the ecosystem. “The creator economy is getting complicated fast. AI, platform shifts, compliance, performance benchmarking… brands don't want to figure all of that out in-house. They want a partner who already has.”

Shah framed this transition more sharply. “If agencies are only brokering deals, then yes, they should lose relevance. Because the ecosystem does not need middlemen anymore. It needs intelligence, strategy and accountability,” he said, adding, “The future of agencies in this space is not matchmaking. It is meaning-making.”

On the ground, however, many D2C brands continue to operate in a scrappy, test-and-learn mode, especially in the micro and nano creator segments.

“They’re usually working with tight budgets… figuring things out themselves,” said Neel Gogia, Brand Architect at IPLIX Media, the creator agency who works with creators, influencer campaigns, brand partnerships. “The signals are quite basic but effective. Are the views consistent? Does the creator actually fit the brand? And most importantly what’s happening in the comments?”

This approach allows rapid experimentation but creates operational strain at scale. “Doing this with five creators is fine. Doing it with 50 becomes exhausting,” Gogia added.

Even so, some data benchmarks are beginning to shape decision-making. Navneet Kaur, Associate Manager – Brand Solutions: Influencer Marketing at Pocket Aces, pointed to emerging filters in creator selection.

“In India, tools such as Instagram Insights, ShareChat's creator search, HypeAuditor… focusing on signals like 8–12% engagement in regional languages and growth trends guide shortlisting,” she said, while cautioning that “these tools excel at surface-level scans but fall short on strategic fit.”

Meanwhile, direct outreach is also reshaping creator-brand dynamics, often with mixed outcomes.

“Even for bigger creators, I'd push back on the idea that going direct automatically means a better deal,” Panpalia said. “They're not necessarily great at reading a brand's internal budget ceiling or spotting a contract clause that quietly signs away their content rights for three years.”

Shah echoed this, noting that while newer creators welcome inbound interest, seasoned creators are more cautious. “For them, it is not just about money. It is about creative control, brand fit, long-term positioning.”

Kaur added that while direct deals can sometimes fetch “20–30% better rates”, they also lead to “pricing inconsistency, unclear deliverables, and delayed payments.”

The result is a hybrid model taking shape, where discovery may be direct, but structure is increasingly outsourced.

As platforms also re-enter the creator race with incentives, Panpalia sees a broader shift underway. “What this really tells me is that the platform wars are back and creators are the prize.”

He added a note of caution. “Don’t chase the platform that's paying the most today. Build where your audience is.”

For brands, the takeaway is becoming clearer. Creator marketing is no longer just about finding the right face. It is about building repeatable growth engines.