Bihar polls: Can digital ad spend alone decide who wins?

The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance, which includes Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s JD(U), registered a decisive victory in Bihar, leading in 189 of the 243 seats, well above the majority mark of 122. The Congress won six seats after contesting 61 constituencies. Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party, contesting elections for the first time and fielding candidates in 238 constituencies, failed to win a single seat. AIMIM secured five seats.

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Digital ad library data shows the BJP was the highest advertiser during the campaign period. The party spent around ₹6.75 crore on Google and YouTube in October. Jan Suraaj spent about ₹1.10 crore, JD(U) roughly ₹28 lakh, and Congress ₹17,250. On Meta platforms, including Facebook and Instagram, the BJP spent about ₹1.77 crore between October 2 and October 31, while Jan Suraaj recorded about ₹1.21 crore, JD(U) about ₹63 lakh, Congress nearly ₹7.41 lakh and RJD about ₹6.16 lakh. Combined Google and Meta figures place the BJP at roughly ₹8.52 crore, Jan Suraaj at about ₹2.32 crore, JD(U) at ₹92 lakh, Congress at ₹7.59 lakh and RJD at nearly ₹6.16 lakh.

This gap between digital spends and seats won raises questions about how much paid online promotion translates to votes. In Bihar, the BJP’s heavy digital investment coincides with the party’s strong showing, but the relationship is not straightforward.

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Shudeep Majumdar, CEO and co-founder of Zefmo, an influencer marketing agency, said there is some connection between spending and vote share, adding that “there seems to be a clear link between digital spending and vote share in Bihar. BJP spent hundreds of crores and won big, but RJD spent less and did not secure significant seats.” He noted that the BJP’s scale of digital investment is one factor among several that shaped the outcome.

Jan Suraaj’s performance underlines the limits of online advertising as a stand-alone strategy. Majumdar pointed to the party as a striking example, saying, “The most telling case? Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj was probably the second-highest digital spender, but won zero seats.” The party’s higher digital visibility did not convert into electoral victories, despite extensive campaign spend on Google, YouTube and Meta.

At the same time, digital campaigns appear to have played a role in influencing younger voters. Bihar has 1.63 crore voters aged 20 to 29 and 14 lakh first-time voters. The 18 to 39 age group represents about half of the electorate. Majumdar argued that digital advertising reached this cohort, saying, “Surely digital ads swayed them. Roughly 60 percent plus of young Biharis use WhatsApp and YouTube.” He also stressed that young voters do not decide on digital cues alone, adding, “They are also voting on offline realities: migration, unemployment, jobs, education. First-time voters in Patna cited governance and development, not party identity, as their top concern.” Those offline realities help explain why a high level of digital visibility could amplify a message but not substitute for local context and ground work.

According to Anup Sharma, PR and Political Strategic Communications Advisor, the BJP’s strong performance in Bihar and the visibility of folk voices like Maithili Thakur, who won Aligarh, underline how youth-driven digital culture now feeds into political momentum. “Bihar is a young and online state, and when a Maithili Thakur or a Bhojpuri star posts a reel, it reaches a voter in Nawada or Saharsa within minutes. These clips convert into WhatsApp forwards, community chatter and eventually mainstream news coverage. For first-time and young voters, who consume politics through short videos, this becomes an entry point into political preference formation,” shared Sharma.

“But that visibility does not automatically convert into votes. Bihar still decides its outcome through local arithmetic, candidate credibility and caste-based alignments. Digital influence opens conversations, but booth-level mobilisation closes them. That is why celebrities and influencers help parties set the narrative, but the final result depends on ground structure. In this election, the BJP combined celebrity-led visibility with organisational strength, while micro and nano influencers localised the messaging. A Bhojpuri superstar creates scale, but the small Samastipur vlogger or Begusarai YouTuber creates trust,” explained Sharma.

He adds, “Parties have also adapted by packaging every celebrity interaction into digital content. A meet-and-greet is filmed, cut into short videos, given simple hooks and seeded across party accounts. This reaches younger voters who may not attend rallies but will watch a reel that shows a favourite singer endorsing a candidate. At the same time, the Election Commission’s rules on certifying political ads and synthetic content have pushed parties to produce more traceable and compliant digital material, which we saw throughout this election.”

“The clear takeaway is that cultural icons now operate as political influencers, but they are one layer in a larger machinery. They amplify visibility, and youth engagement grows around them, but the decisive factors in Bihar remain social structure, local networks and field-level organisation. Parties that combine all three elements maximise both digital reach and electoral conversion.”

The BJP’s digital approach in Bihar also shows a trend towards segmentation and targeted messaging. Majumdar said parties are shifting from mass campaigns to micro-targeting and voter profiling, and he placed the BJP at the forefront of that change, saying, “Parties are moving to micro-targeting and voter profiling. BJP leads this shift, using AI and data analytics to craft demographic-specific messages.”

He described how campaigns varied content by audience, with urban youth receiving short animated content focused on infrastructure and employment, and rural voters targeted with Bhojpuri folk formats and village influencers. Majumdar added a caveat about the precision of such methods, saying, “Zefmo’s research shows micro-targeting forecasts voter behavior with limited accuracy, and this is bound to change in due course of time.”

Promotional logic explains part of the ad spend pattern. Paid digital advertising boosts visibility, allows rapid message iteration and enables campaign teams to buy targeted impressions by age, location and interest. In a promotional sense, digital ads function like any paid media, amplifying chosen narratives and controlling creative placement. However, vote share reflects a mix of promotional reach and voter persuasion that depends on credibility, ground organisation and local issues. Majumdar summed this up by saying, “Did digital campaigns help BJP win? Yes, it did have an impact, but so did the offline factors.” The implication for marketers is that paid digital activity can shape conversations and attention, but converting attention into votes requires a coordinated combination of digital reach, data-informed targeting and sustained on-ground mobilisation.

The Election Commission’s restrictions on print advertising on polling days increased reliance on digital channels. For Bihar, the EC barred political advertisements in print on November 5 and 6 for phase one and on November 10 and 11 for phase two unless pre-certified by the Media Certification and Monitoring Committee, with applications required at least two days before publication. That regulatory constraint likely pushed campaigns to use digital platforms for last-mile messaging and rapid creative changes.

Local organisational strength also remained decisive. BJP and JD(U) retained robust networks of district units and booth-level volunteers, which helped convert visibility into votes. AIMIM’s wins in five seats illustrate how a focused ground presence, combined with targeted messaging, can produce results. Asaduddin Owaisi urged other non-NDA parties to reflect on their strategies, saying they should try to “address their shortcomings instead of assuming voters would automatically favour them.”

For political advertisers and campaign planners, Bihar offers a realist lesson. Paid digital advertising is necessary for modern campaigns, especially to reach younger voters and to deliver targeted content. At the same time, it is promotional in nature and effective only when integrated with offline organisation, credible messaging and attention to local issues. High ad spend can magnify a campaign’s voice, but the final decision at the ballot box remains a function of multiple, interacting factors.