How will Meta & Google adapt to RMG ad revenue loss?

The sudden ban on real-money gaming apps has done more than just pull the plug on one of digital advertising’s biggest spenders. It has exposed how little clarity there ever was around the scale of that spend in the first place.

Depending on who you ask, the category was anywhere between a ₹2,000 crore and ₹10,000 crore vertical, a range that’s less insight than industry folklore. A tighter, data-backed estimate places it closer to ₹4,300–₹4,600 crore in 2024, roughly 10% of India’s digital AdEx and about 4% of total advertising spends. The opacity says as much about the informal nature of India’s performance economy as it does about the volatility of the digital market itself.

Also read: RMG ban leaves adland without its biggest players

What is clear is that the ban has punched a visible hole in the country’s performance-driven ad ecosystem. The companies most exposed to it (Google and Meta) are now busy recalibrating their pitches. RMG advertisers were among their most aggressive spenders, driving volumes through app-install, conversion and high-frequency remarketing campaigns. Losing them overnight has left a vacuum that no single vertical can immediately fill.

In Q2 2025, Google (Alphabet) reported ad revenues of USD 71.3 billion, up about 10.4 % year over year, with YouTube’s ad revenue alone hitting USD 9.8 billion as Shorts and video formats drove growth.  Meanwhile, Meta posted total revenues of USD 47.52 billion, of which USD 46.56 billion came from advertising (i.e. 98 %).

“The RMG ban has left a sudden vacuum in the performance-driven advertising ecosystem, especially for platforms like Google and Meta, where these players were among the most aggressive spenders,” said Gopa Menon, COO and co-founder of TheBlurr.

He added that while it’s difficult for other categories to match that intensity, high-intent verticals like e-commerce and fintech are likely to absorb a significant share of the budget because “measurable conversions still drive decision-making.” Menon expects entertainment apps, OTT and short-video platforms to pick up some of the slack too, as they share similar user-acquisition goals.

Also read: RMG ban: Asia Cup to see dip in ad volumes?

The platforms, he noted, are responding by repositioning their ecosystems around “brand-safe performance.” That means encouraging advertisers in compliant sectors to lean harder into performance-led formats, with app installs, shopping campaigns, and Meta’s Advantage+ solutions among them.

“While they might not be slashing prices across the board,” Menon said, “you can expect them to be more flexible with high-potential advertisers. Expect them to sweeten deals through added support, training, and credits for top spenders to retain momentum.” Meta, he believes, will rely on Reels and commerce integrations to demonstrate conversion value, while Google doubles down on Search and App campaigns to prove efficiency.

Yaron Tomchin, CEO of MobUpps, described the disappearance of RMG ads as “a very noticeable gap in digital ad spend, especially because RMG has historically been high-ticket, performance-driven, and ROI-focused.”

“A lot of that money won’t just disappear, but will be spent on other high-performance, measurable channels,” he said. “E-commerce is an obvious beneficiary, particularly in verticals where the ROI is trackable and conversions are immediate. Fintech is another strong competitor, especially for consumer-facing apps that have clear monetisation events.”

Tomchin said entertainment and streaming platforms are also poised to capture some of the redirected budgets, though those spends may lean more brand-focused than purely performance-led. “Platforms like Google and Meta are acutely aware of the revenue hole left by RMG,” he added. “They’re pivoting quickly, repositioning their ad inventory to appeal to adjacent verticals and leaning heavily on incentives to retain the lost budgets.”

Among those incentives, he cited trial credits, new campaign formats, and performance guarantees designed to reassure advertisers. “They’re selling predictable, performance-backed reach to fill a void that was once dominated by RMG,” he said.

That predictability is crucial. As Jay Sayta, technology and gaming lawyer, pointed out, the speed of the ban’s rollout “was a shock” to the industry. “The speed at which it was brought in will have an impact on the whole ecosystem,” he said, including “broadcasters, Meta and Google, or the digital media guys.”

Sayta noted that some estimates peg the financial hit in the “thousands of crores.” The matter has now reached the Supreme Court, with hearings slated to continue through November, starting from November 4. “Some of the companies have challenged this and the cases have all been clubbed and transferred… the Supreme Court is hearing the matter,” he said. Until a verdict arrives, “RMG is off the table unless the government changes its policy or the Supreme Court rules something else.”

While the legal process drags on, the market is already reshaping itself. Vaibhav Jain, Head of Media at First Economy, said the disruption has not dented the overall appetite for measurable performance. “Most of that spend is simply finding new homes,” he said. “E-commerce and fintech are absorbing a large share, driven by festive campaigns and the ongoing expansion of digital payments and investment platforms.”

He also pointed to OTT and creator ecosystems as emerging beneficiaries. “Many brands are redirecting performance budgets into influencer-driven formats that deliver strong engagement without regulatory uncertainty,” he said. “This shift is less an exit from digital and more a reset within it.”

Also read: RMG ban to hit celebrities hard as ₹200-300 crore endorsement deals vanish overnight

Jain sees both Google and Meta “repositioning thoughtfully rather than reactively,” emphasising “brand-safe performance and transparent measurement.” Meta is reinforcing its creator and entertainment-led formats, while Google is doubling down on commerce and fintech where “search intent and measurable outcomes remain strong.” He described the current moment as one of quiet evolution: “Instead of promising only reach and ROI, both platforms are emphasising responsibility, data clarity, and regulatory alignment. Incentives such as ad credits or bundled sponsorships are short-term levers. The longer game is about rebuilding advertiser confidence and demonstrating that performance at scale can still exist within compliant boundaries.”

That push toward compliance is echoed by Sini Magon, COO and Global Partner at Grapes Worldwide, who said the abrupt wipeout of RMG ads has forced the industry to “maneuver uncharted territory with strategic budget redistribution to sectors showcasing strong performance traits.” E-commerce, fintech and entertainment, she added, “come with a lot of potential to attract audience attention.”

But Magon also pointed out that the platforms themselves are treading carefully. “Google and Meta already have a stricter certification and compliance policy in place. They exercise tight policy enforcements and platform restrictions that ban gambling or RMG ads unless they fulfil certain compliance criteria,” she said.

“There are no incentives, rebates, discounts, or ad-credit programs to compensate for the losses. Rather, their focus is on creating an ecosystem that offers compliance, transparency, and safer ad placement as counterweights to the restrictions,” she adds.

For now, Google and Meta’s balance sheets haven’t shown the hit. Meta’s India ad revenues for the June quarter rose roughly 8% year-on-year, while Google India’s ad business grew about 10% in the same period, buoyed by early festive activity and FMCG’s predictable push.

But as other industry insiders who requested anonymity acknowledge, the real impact won’t be visible until next March, when IPL season rolls around. That’s when RMG advertisers typically flood the market with campaign money and sponsorship tie-ins: funds that won’t be coming this time. Insiders also suggest that much of this year’s revenue had already been booked before the ban, and that quick commerce and FMCG brands are commanding the current festive budgets, though those too are finite.

Between the uncertain numbers and the even more uncertain future of RMG, one thing is evident: India’s performance advertising ecosystem is being forced to grow up fast. Google and Meta, for once, aren’t just selling performance. They’re selling trust, safety and compliance as part of the package. Whether that’s enough to plug a ₹4,500 crore hole will depend on how fast other categories can convert intent into spend.

Google and Meta did not respond to questions at the time of publishing.