TV inventory is selling without ratings. So, where’s the BARC blackout hurting?

The absence of weekly BARC ratings may not leave television screens short of advertisers this festive season. What it could leave broadcasters short of, however, is the premium they traditionally make from selling those advertising seconds.

More than two months into the ratings blackout, conversations with advertisers, media buyers and industry veterans suggest that the television advertising market continues to move but with significantly altered economics.

Industry estimates shared with exchange4media suggest that the largest channels are already close to selling out, while sell-through weakens progressively down the channel stack. Premium properties, too, continue to find takers.

The question, therefore, is increasingly not whether festive inventory will sell, but at what yield.

Sujata Dwibedy, Chief Executive Officer, dentsu X, said the challenge this festive season is less about finding buyers and more about protecting the value of each advertising second sold.

“The BARC blackout is unlikely to leave festive inventory completely unsold, but it will significantly impact broadcaster yields. Typically, the festive period is when television networks see a 20–25% spike in demand and generate a substantial share of their annual revenues. This year, broadcasters are having to negotiate much harder, offering additional inventory, sponsorships, integrations and other commercial sweeteners instead of relying on ratings-backed pricing,” she said.

“My estimate is that broadcasters may end up selling around 75–80% of their expected festive inventory, but even getting to that level hasn't been easy. They've had to work much harder to convince advertisers to stay on television. The impact also won't be uniform. Large networks and flagship channels with historically stable audience delivery will be relatively insulated because advertisers trust their reach, while smaller, niche and regional channels that depend more on fresh ratings to justify pricing are likely to face much greater pressure,” Dwibedy added. 

Festive TV's yield problem

The pressure on yields comes against an already changing television advertising market. 

According to the Pitch Madison Advertising Report 2026, linear TV AdEx declined 5% from Rs 34,453 crore in 2024 to Rs 32,855 crore in 2025, an absolute decline of Rs 1,598 crore, even as advertising volumes fell a much sharper 10%. FMCG, which still accounted for 46% of television advertising, saw spends fall 4% to Rs 15,183 crore, while e-commerce declined 4% to Rs 5,125 crore. Consumer durables fell 8% and telecom 10%.

The report attributed the gap to improving average yields as advertisers concentrated spends on better and premium inventory. It also found premium GEC properties holding their ground even as commodity GEC inventory came under pressure.

Marquee properties, however, appear to be holding their ground. Current industry estimates put KBC at around Rs 4.5 lakh per 10 seconds, India’s Best Dancer at around Rs 4 lakh and Bigg Boss at around Rs 5 lakh. Industry executives say these rates are broadly equivalent to comparable premium inventory in previous seasons, suggesting that while regular inventory is facing harder negotiations, television’s biggest properties have so far been able to protect their pricing power.

Sold out at the top, squeezed at the tail

That pressure, however, is not playing out evenly across television inventory. Industry executives say the early festive buying pattern is increasingly showing a divide between premium properties and regular inventory, as well as between the largest channels and those further down the television stack.

Estimates differ on how much inventory will ultimately be sold, but industry executives are more aligned on where the pressure is showing up: regular inventory and channels further down the stack.

A senior media buyer, who did not wish to be named, said premium properties continue to command advertiser interest even without fresh ratings, while negotiations have become considerably harder for regular inventory.

“Premium inventory continues to be in high demand, KBC, for instance, has 27 sponsors. The real pressure is on regular inventory, where ratings would ordinarily help establish GRPs, CPRPs and pricing benchmarks. The top 50 channels have already sold out their inventory, mid-tier channels are at around 80%, while the tail is at roughly 65%. Inventory may eventually be fully sold, but the yield will be lower because advertisers are negotiating harder on effective rates and value additions,” they said.

What is emerging, therefore, is less an inventory crisis than a pricing hierarchy. Properties and channels whose reach advertisers already understand can continue to command demand on the strength of historical performance. Further down the stack, the absence of fresh ratings weakens broadcasters' ability to demonstrate delivery and, consequently, defend price.

For Dr Sandeep Goyal, Managing Director, Rediffusion Brand Solutions, the blackout has not taken away buyers' understanding of the television market; it has, however, altered the currency of negotiation and exposed the declining bargaining power of smaller channels.

“Honestly, most buyers and clients have a broad idea of how and where various channels and their content stack up. There is enough market and trade feedback for that. So, CPRP deals get moved to volume deals, where, unless there is a major deviation, peace prevails. The festive season is no longer the marquee peak it used to be, as clients now invest more in digital than in TV. Inevitably, that means channels no longer have the brutal bargaining strength they used to have. So, the big channels still hold, while the smaller ones get squeezed,” he said. 

The shift Goyal points to is visible in the broader advertising numbers. 

India's overall advertising market reached Rs 1.55 lakh crore in 2025 under Pitch Madison's expanded definition, with digital accounting for 60% of the market. CTV advertising alone doubled to an estimated Rs 6,000 crore during the year and is projected to reach Rs 8,000 crore in 2026.

The blackout, therefore, comes at a time when television buyers already have significantly more measurable video alternatives than during previous disruptions to ratings.

Brands aren't pulling the plug on TV

For advertisers, however, the picture is more nuanced. While the absence of fresh ratings may be strengthening their hand at the negotiating table, it has not necessarily translated into brands pulling planned spends from television. 

Historical BARC data, established channel performance and the continuing need for mass reach are allowing television to remain on festive media plans, even as brands keep their allocation across TV, digital and CTV increasingly fluid.

“The ratings blackout does create some uncertainty, but one would not hold back TV spends significantly. Historical BARC data, channel performance and past festive trends continue to provide a strong basis for planning. One would, however, keep the TV, digital and CTV mix more dynamic,” said Rajiv Dubey, Dabur India's Vice President, Head of Media and Head of Brand Activations.

That confidence, however, may become harder to sustain the longer the blackout continues. The absence of fresh measurement gives platforms offering more deterministic targeting and attribution an additional advantage.

“In the absence of fresh ratings, pricing, inventory flexibility and delivery become more important. If the BARC blackout continues, the TV industry will increasingly lose opportunities to more deterministic mediums like CTV, where audience targeting and measurement provide greater confidence,” he added. 

Not every shift away from TV is about BARC

But while the blackout may make measurable platforms relatively more attractive, advertisers caution against attributing every shift away from linear television to the absence of BARC ratings. 

For several brands, the fragmentation of the media mix was already underway, driven by changing campaign objectives, audience behaviour and the need for more targeted communication.

Tanmay Prusty, CMO, Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals, said the company's media allocation is driven more by the marketing problem it is trying to solve than by the availability of BARC ratings.

“Our media-mix decisions aren't being driven specifically by the BARC blackout. Crompton was already exploring a wider set of mediums because different product categories require different, often geo-targeted solutions. That has opened up greater conversations around digital and connected TV, while we have also increased our focus on print and outdoor,” Prusty said.

“So, if TV's share is getting distributed across more mediums, I wouldn't attribute that necessarily to BARC. It is driven more by the marketing problem a campaign needs to solve and the need for the brand to stand out. The larger shift is towards a more diversified media mix rather than a reaction to the ratings blackout itself,” he added.

The distinction is important. The ratings blackout has not created television's underlying challenge: advertiser budgets were already fragmenting, digital had overtaken television and CTV was growing rapidly. Nor has the blackout, at least so far, triggered an exodus of advertisers from linear TV.

What it has done is remove television's common measurement currency at precisely the time broadcasters would ordinarily seek to extract their strongest seasonal pricing. For the largest channels and marquee properties, historical reach and advertiser familiarity offer some protection. Further down the stack, that cushion is considerably thinner.

The festive test, therefore, may not ultimately be how many advertising seconds television manages to sell, but how much those seconds fetch and how much broadcasters have to give away to get there.