Netflix–WBD deal poised to reshape India’s streaming power balance

As Netflix moves to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, the development is being viewed as a potential inflection point for the global entertainment landscape with India emerging as one of the most strategically impacted markets.

According to Elara Capital, the merger could sharpen Netflix’s positioning within the country’s media and entertainment ecosystem, intensify the SVOD–AVOD divide, and accelerate structural shifts that challenge traditional broadcasters, theatres and mid-scale OTT platforms.

The deal, they note, not only strengthens Netflix’s global content muscle but also widens its appeal in India across movies, originals and international TV, in a market where premium entertainment is rapidly consolidating around a few dominant players.

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Elara Capital’s report suggests that storm clouds are likely to gather over traditional entertainment as Netflix India’s M&E profile turns sharper, enabling the platform to gain further share within SVOD and boost its appeal through an expanded catalogue.

With JioStar already holding a near-monopoly in sports, Netflix, backed by the strongest entertainment recall in the country, may also find room to drive ARPU expansion in what remains a highly price-sensitive market, said Karan Taurani, Senior VP, Elara Capital.

Netflix currently leads India’s SVOD space with a 25% share, while JioStar dominates AVOD.

The report notes that this acquisition reinforces both players at scale, entrenching their competitive strengths even further. A key upside of the deal is the boost to Netflix’s movie, IP and franchise development capabilities, enabling a faster ramp-up of India-based film production across both OTT-first and theatrical formats. At the same time, the strategic importance of IPL may increase, as JioStar will need to retain digital rights post-2028 to protect its AVOD leadership against a stronger Netflix.

According to the report, Amazon Prime Video may find its scaling ability constrained as Netflix and JioStar strengthen their grip on the market. This could push smaller and niche OTT platforms to seek partnerships with Amazon to stay viable. The scenario is particularly negative for linear broadcasters such as Zee Entertainment and Sun TV Network, whose limited digital contributions (15–10% of revenue) could further restrict OTT growth amid intensifying content competition.

Read On: Netflix to acquire Warner Bros.

In the US market, the combined heft of Netflix and HBO is expected to command a 33% share of streaming hours — 50% larger than Amazon Prime Video at 21%. With a combined TV watch-time share of around 14%, the merged entity is also set to surpass YouTube, which stands at approximately 13%, becoming the biggest entertainer in the US, per Nielsen.

The report adds that Hollywood contributes 15–20% of PVR INOX’s gross box office collection (GBOC), and within this, WBD accounts for 20%, translating to a 4% GBOC share. While English films form a small portion of volume, they deliver higher F&B and advertising yields, making them essential for exhibitors. For instance, the Superman 2025 film collected USD 395 million globally but only around USD 10 million in India (2% of its worldwide total). Because India contributes such a minor share to Hollywood revenues, Netflix may have the flexibility to experiment with WBD’s major franchise titles, from shortening theatrical windows to testing direct-to-OTT premieres in India, to push subscriber growth.

Any such shift would have a material impact on exhibitors, particularly in a post-pandemic environment where dependence on large franchise films has risen.

Elara Capital estimates that a worst-case outcome, where content tilts toward OTT-first releases, could lead to a 4% revenue impact for PVR INOX, dragging EBITDA by 6% in FY28E. Overall, the Netflix–WBD acquisition presents a potentially negative outlook for India’s exhibitors if release models pivot more aggressively toward streaming.