Lockdown relaxations push India’s COVID peak to Sept 3: Times Fact-India Outbreak Report

Latest projections by the Times Fact-India Outbreak Report indicates that India is set to hit a peak of 9.86 lakh active cases on September 3

e4m by exchange4media Staff
Published: Jul 29, 2020 2:52 PM  | 2 min read
Times report

Following the implementation of lockdown relaxations to revive the nation’s economy, several states recorded a surge in cases, which has further pushed India’s COVID-19 peak to September 03. Tracking the coronavirus pandemic in India for the past several months, Times Fact-India Outbreak Report, released its latest projections and highlights that India is set to hit a peak of 9.86 lakh active cases on September 3 according to most likely scenario and as per SEIR model the peak is projected at 10.15 lakh active cases on September 01.

The report shows that following India's peak, daily active case counts will decline by November 17, thereby establishing India’s recovery from COVID-19. This was earlier projected to end by mid-October.

The study shows that the easing of mobility restrictions has led to abandoning of safety protocols and significantly contributing to India’s peak being pushed. A continued failure to practise social distancing could very well skew India's coronavirus curve further to the right and upwards, yielding a higher peak, and more distant end date, indicates the report.

Times Fact-India Outbreak Report: Key takeaways
1. R0 or the basic reproduction number/rate, for India is slowly going down to 1.63 from 1.69 in last 20 days.
2. All the major states except Kerala, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Delhi, and Haryana, still shows an upward trend with R0 close to 1.5.
3. The Southern states of Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu continue to exhibit worrying COVID-19 trends.
4. While Mumbai has put the worst behind, the new COVID-19 hotspots are Bengaluru and Pune.
5. Chennai, Bengaluru, Thane and Pune still shows an upward trend with R0 close to 1.9 and R0 for all other major cities is still above 1.6 but showing a slow downward trend.
6. Active cases of Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh have been growing rapidly with 10 and 12 days doubling time respectively.
7. 31% of the active cases in India is from Maharashtra, however the average growth rate is 3% (7 days average).
8. The Eastern States including West Bengal could emerge as trouble spots in the event if the trend continues.

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