Retail media boom: Are consumer journeys moving beyond platforms?

India’s retail media market is expanding at an unprecedented pace, projected to grow from $2.8 billion in 2025 to $8.2 billion by 2030, increasing its share of digital advertising from 29 per cent to 46 per cent. On the surface, this signals a strong shift toward commerce-driven marketing, where intent signals and measurable outcomes are reshaping media investments. Yet beneath this growth lies a fundamental disconnect between how consumers shop and how brands continue to market.

The modern Indian consumer no longer follows a linear purchase path. Discovery, consideration, and conversion are distributed across multiple platforms, often unfolding within hours rather than days. Media and commerce signals are converging, but execution remains fragmented. Organisations still operate in silos, with separate teams, budgets, and metrics governing different parts of the funnel. The result is a system optimised for visibility at the point of purchase, but not for influence across the journey.

This growing misalignment is forcing the industry to confront a deeper question. Is retail media scaling in a way that truly captures consumer behaviour, or is it simply scaling what is easiest to measure?

Discovery Is Off-Platform, Influence Is Under-Measured

Consumer data reveals a clear shift in how purchase journeys begin. Around 90 per cent of Indian consumers discover new brands through digital advertising, much of which happens outside retail environments. Social media leads this discovery phase, with 67 per cent of consumers noticing ads on these platforms, followed by 55 per cent through search within shopping apps and 51 per cent on retailer homepages.

At the same time, only 5 per cent of consumers complete their entire journey within a single shopping platform. A significant 51 per cent conduct most of their research outside shopping apps, while another 44 per cent move across multiple channels before making a purchase. These behaviours reflect a more deliberate and informed consumer mindset, where evaluation spans content platforms, reviews, search engines, and marketplaces.

Despite this, marketing investments remain disproportionately focused on retail platforms, where conversion is easiest to track. This creates a mismatch between where demand is generated and where it is measured.

Amyn Ghadiali, Country Head, Gozoop Creative, points to the scale of this disconnect. “India’s retail media boom from $2.8B to a projected $8.2B by 2030 is being celebrated as the next big unlock. But beneath the headline number lies a more uncomfortable truth: we’re scaling a system fundamentally misaligned with how people actually shop.”

He further explains that discovery is largely external to retail ecosystems. “Today, nearly 70-80% of discovery happens outside retail platforms - on Instagram reels, YouTube reviews, WhatsApp forwards, and good old Google searches. Yet, a disproportionate share of media spend is still optimised for on-platform conversions.”

This imbalance becomes particularly visible in categories like beauty and fashion. Platforms see demand heavily influenced by creator-led ecosystems, where social content shapes intent long before a user engages with a retail app. Yet, most measurement systems attribute the sale to the final click within the platform, leaving the influence layer largely invisible.

Consideration Is Distributed, Conversion Is Compressed

The fragmentation becomes more pronounced during the consideration phase. Only 14 per cent of consumers add a product to their cart immediately after discovering it. Instead, 31 per cent look for more details within the app, 27 per cent search externally, and 23 per cent check reviews. This iterative behaviour highlights that decision-making is shaped across multiple touchpoints rather than a single interaction.

At the same time, once intent is formed, conversion timelines are increasingly compressed. Around 64 per cent of consumers complete a purchase on the same day after seeing an ad, with 26 per cent buying immediately and 38 per cent later that day. This indicates that by the time a user reaches a retail platform, the decision is often already influenced by prior interactions.

This dynamic is reshaping the role of retail media. It is no longer the primary driver of demand but a critical mechanism for capturing intent that has been built elsewhere. However, the industry continues to allocate budgets as if conversion is the starting point of influence rather than its endpoint.

Measurement Remains the Industry’s Biggest Constraint

If consumer behaviour has evolved, measurement systems have not kept pace, say industry observers. Nearly 50 per cent of advertisers identify measurement and attribution as their top challenge, while 43 per cent struggle with data standardisation across platforms. The lack of a unified measurement framework makes it difficult to connect media exposure with actual business outcomes.

Only 12 per cent of retail platforms currently offer real-time, unified dashboards that integrate on-site and off-site performance. In contrast, 43 per cent provide only partial visibility, and the rest rely on manual data mapping across systems. This fragmentation prevents brands from understanding how different touchpoints contribute to conversion.

Ghadiali highlights the operational impact of this fragmentation. “The real bottleneck here is measurement. Siloed budgets, walled gardens, and inconsistent attribution models mean we’re still operating with a broken map of the consumer journey.”

He adds that this leads to distorted optimisation. “Brands are over-investing in lower-funnel ads because they’re easier to measure, leading to inflated ROAS numbers that look great on paper but don’t necessarily translate into incremental growth.”

Meher Patel, Founder of Hector, reinforces this perspective by pointing to the structural divide between platforms. “Discovery and consideration largely happen on platforms like Meta and YouTube, while conversions are concentrated on marketplaces such as Amazon and Flipkart, each operating within closed attribution systems. This pushes brands toward bottom-funnel optimisation where returns are immediately visible.”

This creates a feedback loop where measurement limitations drive budget allocation, which in turn reinforces the same limitations.

Data Fragmentation and Organisational Silos Limit Growth

Beyond measurement, the lack of data integration remains a critical barrier. Only 11 per cent of brands currently unify data across D2C channels, apps, and retail platforms. The majority continue to operate with fragmented datasets, limiting their ability to build a comprehensive view of the consumer.

This fragmentation is mirrored in organisational structures. Performance teams control 45 per cent of digital media budgets, while integrated teams account for just 24 per cent. Brand and performance functions often operate with separate KPIs, leading to misaligned strategies.

Patel explains how this affects decision-making. “Without a unified data layer that connects exposure to outcomes, brands struggle to quantify the impact of upper-funnel investments on marketplace performance. Until measurement evolves toward incrementality and cross-platform attribution, full-funnel adoption will remain limited.”

The result is a system where strategic decisions are constrained by structural limitations, rather than guided by consumer behaviour.

The Cost of Over-Reliance on Retargeting

The imbalance is also visible in how brands engage with consumers. While 64 per cent of consumers find personalised ads useful, 84 per cent prefer fewer, more relevant ads. At the same time, 61 per cent report that ads based on past behaviour feel repetitive.

This indicates an over-reliance on retargeting, driven by its ability to deliver immediate, measurable outcomes. However, excessive frequency across platforms can lead to diminishing returns and reduced brand trust.

Patel notes, “There is a clear over-reliance on retargeting in India, driven by its ability to deliver quick, attributable returns. However, excessive frequency across platforms often leads to diminishing conversion efficiency and weakens brand perception.”

This highlights the need for a shift from volume-driven targeting to intent-led engagement that balances reach, relevance, and timing.

AI and Commerce Intelligence Signal the Next Phase

As the industry grapples with these challenges, AI-led commerce intelligence is emerging as a critical enabler. Around 72 per cent of platforms are using AI for privacy-compliant audience segmentation, while 65 per cent are applying it to model shopper intent, lifetime value, and churn risk. Additionally, 56 per cent are leveraging AI for real-time personalisation.

These capabilities are beginning to improve signal quality and decision-making across the funnel. Brands are moving beyond basic targeting toward more nuanced audience cohorts, enabling better new-to-brand acquisition and mid-funnel engagement.

However, the full potential of AI remains constrained by fragmented data ecosystems. Without unified data streams, AI optimisation is limited to individual platforms rather than the entire journey.

Medhavi Singh, Country Head, Criteo India, underscores the importance of this transition. “Retail media in India is at a pivotal moment, with high-intent consumer signals and shrinking purchase cycles creating a strong opportunity for brands and retailers to drive measurable outcomes. However, unlocking this full potential requires moving beyond siloed, lower-funnel activation toward more connected, full-funnel strategies.”

She adds that the next phase of growth will depend on integration. “This calls for stronger data foundations, closed-loop measurement, and a shift from last-click optimisation to AI-driven, real-time personalisation.”

From Performance Marketing to Connected Commerce

India’s digital advertising ecosystem is undergoing a structural transition. The shift is from performance marketing, which prioritises immediate conversions, to commerce intelligence, which focuses on understanding and influencing the entire consumer journey.

This requires a rethinking of how success is defined and measured. Instead of optimising for clicks and conversions alone, brands need to measure incrementality, new customer acquisition, and long-term value. It also requires breaking down silos between teams, platforms, and data systems.

Ghadiali captures the broader industry shift. “Retail media cannot operate as a closed loop anymore. It has to become part of a larger demand engine that recognises discovery, consideration, and conversion as interconnected, not isolated.”

The opportunity ahead is significant. With a fragmented yet rapidly evolving ecosystem, India is uniquely positioned to redefine how commerce media operates. But unlocking this potential will require more than incremental changes. It will demand a fundamental shift in how the industry connects data, measures impact, and understands consumers.

As retail media continues to grow, the real question is not how big it will become, but how effectively it can align with the reality of how India shops.