Creators to influence 30% of retail spend by 2030: Google-Deloitte report

India’s e-commerce sector is on track for a massive transformation, with creator-led influence expected to shape nearly 30% of total retail spending by 2030, according to a joint report by Google and Deloitte. The report projects the overall market will surge to $250 billion by the end of the decade, nearly tripling from its current $90 billion size.

The findings highlight a fundamental shift in consumer behavior, driven largely by a growing base of digital-native shoppers. An estimated 150 million new users are expected to enter the online economy, while per capita spending is set to double. At the center of this evolution is Gen Z, a 220-million-strong demographic that is projected to command 45% of all online spending.

The report describes this transition as a move from traditional “linear shopping funnels” to a more dynamic, always-on cycle of discovery, validation, and purchase—powered increasingly by artificial intelligence and immersive technologies.

A key driver of this shift is the rise of creator-led commerce. By 2030, one in every ten online purchases is expected to be directly linked to creator storefronts. This trend is anticipated to be especially strong in smaller cities, where creators could bring as many as 60 million first-time buyers into the digital fold. Live commerce, another fast-growing segment, is projected to become an $8 billion market, particularly in categories such as fashion, beauty, and electronics.

Quick commerce is also emerging as a major growth engine. The segment is expected to expand into a $50 billion market, with its user base doubling to 70 million. Notably, its growth will extend beyond metros, with Tier-2 and smaller cities contributing nearly 30% of the demand. Non-food categories are set to account for 45% of spending in this space, signaling a shift from convenience-driven grocery deliveries to broader retail adoption.

Artificial intelligence is poised to play a central role in reshaping the sector. The report estimates AI could boost retail profitability by 30–35% by enabling hyper-personalized shopping experiences and improving backend efficiencies such as inventory management and logistics. Increasingly, AI tools are being positioned as “shopping companions,” helping users move seamlessly from product discovery to purchase.

Immersive technologies are also gaining traction. Nearly 89% of consumers now expect a unified shopping experience across online and offline channels. Features such as augmented reality (AR) and virtual try-ons are influencing purchase decisions, with one in three shoppers already preferring virtual trials. Retailers adopting such technologies could see up to a 20% uplift in revenue, the report suggests.

Industry experts note that the convergence of AI, creator ecosystems, and rapid delivery models is redefining the retail landscape. The emphasis is shifting toward personalization, speed, and experience, rather than just price and availability.

As India’s digital commerce ecosystem matures, businesses that successfully integrate technology with consumer engagement are likely to capture a larger share of this projected $250 billion opportunity.