State polls likely to offer over Rs 1,400 crore uplift to media sector

At a time when macroeconomic uncertainties—from Middle East-US conflict to inflationary pressures and a weakening rupee—are weighing on advertising sentiment, upcoming Assembly elections across five states are expected to inject a timely boost into India’s media economy.

Industry estimates suggest incremental ad spends of over Rs 1,200 to 1,400 crore in the coming weeks, offering a counter-cyclical lift to a sector otherwise facing demand softness. News channels, newspapers, outdoor and digital platforms are all expected to benefit from this surge in political advertising.

Polling in Assam, West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry is scheduled this month, covering 824 constituencies and an electorate of nearly 17.4 crore.

Anil Solanki, Media Lead at dentsuX, echoed this view, noting that the final number will depend on the intensity and duration of campaigns. “Polls in five states are expected to generate Rs 1,200 to 1,400 crore in the next few weeks. Regional TV, print and digital will see the highest uplift. TV delivers scale and credibility, print remains strong for local influence, while digital is gaining share for targeted messaging and rapid deployment. The mix is becoming more hybrid, with digital growing fastest,” he said.

With industry experts estimating that the current cycle across five poll-bound states could generate Rs 1,000 crore to 1,400 crore, there is expectation that this may translate into a 3–5% quarterly upside for media owners and agencies.

Shares Vinay Hegde, CEO – Investment (Media), Madison World, “Elections remain India’s largest episodic advertising event outside IPL and the festive season, but they are increasingly acting as an accelerator for structural shifts—towards digital, regional and performance-led advertising. The mix is moving from mass persuasion to micro-targeted influence.”

Hegde adds, “This shift is reflected in the evolving scale and composition of spends. According to the Association for Democratic Reforms, the 2024 Lok Sabha elections saw total expenditure of ₹1.35 lakh crore, with 45–55 per cent directed towards publicity and advertising. State elections, while smaller in scale, continue to be significant contributors to incremental AdEx.”

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Digital leads, traditional holds ground

According to ad executives, digital will command the largest share of election spends, driven by India’s mobile-first consumption base and the ability to hyper-target voters across cohorts. 

“Television, however, continues to play a central role in delivering scale and credibility, particularly in news and GEC genres, albeit with a gradually declining share,” quips Hegde. 

“Print retains relevance for its perceived legitimacy—especially among older voter segments—while out-of-home (OOH) advertising is expected to see a visible surge through rallies, hoardings and transit media,” he noted.

In essence, the election playbook is becoming increasingly hybrid: high-impact mass media for reach, layered with digital precision for targeted messaging.

Liquidity push, halo effect

Beyond direct ad spends, elections are also triggering a broader economic ripple effect. Governments across poll-bound states have accelerated welfare disbursements, collectively announcing or releasing over ₹37,000 crore through cash transfers, pensions and targeted schemes.

A significant portion of this outlay has been front-loaded ahead of the Model Code of Conduct, with over ₹20,000 crore disbursed in the past month alone—injecting liquidity into local economies, particularly in rural and semi-urban markets.

Hegde highlights that this has a measurable halo effect. “Elections typically lead to increased regionalisation of media spends and higher cash circulation, which boosts consumption and media engagement. However, the effect is not uniform,” he noted.

At the same time, elections create a dual-speed advertising environment. While political spends surge, several consumer brands defer campaigns to avoid clutter and rising media inflation, only to return more aggressively post elections.

“Categories with low share of voice often pull back temporarily, but they tend to rebound strongly once the election cycle ends,” Hegde added, pointing to a familiar pattern of short-term distortion followed by demand recovery.

Echoing the sentiment, Anil Solanki opines, “Elections do create a halo effect—especially for FMCG, auto and fintech—as increased liquidity, rural spending and higher media consumption boost demand. While not the primary driver, this spillover can add a meaningful short-term lift to overall ad volumes.”