FMCG Festive Data: A first-party reservoir ready to burst?

Every Diwali, India’s FMCG giants roll out the fireworks with glossy campaigns, limited-edition packs, and bumper offers designed to capture the nation’s celebratory mood. Behind the scenes, these bursts of festive spending also generate a torrent of first-party data: every click, cart, coupon, and complaint. 

Yet, while India’s total AdEx is projected to hit ₹1.37 trillion in 2025, with digital alone topping ₹728 billion, much of this data sits idle. Global studies suggest 60–73% of this first-party data goes unused, a staggering waste in a category that accounts for nearly 30% of Indian advertising spends.

The irony? Analysts estimate FMCG brands are sitting on a ₹500 crore “goldmine” if they treat first-party data not just as an activation pipe for ads, but as a true intelligence engine. The opportunity isn’t just sharper targeting for festive sales; it’s about fuelling product innovation, loyalty, and long-term moats.

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Shradha Agarwal, Co-founder and Global CEO of Grapes Worldwide, puts it plainly: “The first-party data goes beyond spreadsheets and dashboards, where each click, purchase, and abandoned cart depicts consumer behaviour. It is an intelligent engine that can shape business decisions in addition to devising a campaign.”

Agarwal points out that festive data highlights nuances that can work for the brand (which categories are being explored, which products are abandoned) allowing for precise strategy. “Eventually, it builds on loyalty by strengthening the relationship with the customers rather than being limited to generic reward points,” she adds.

That shift from tactical to strategic is the story of Indian AdTech in 2025. Marketers know how to retarget a cart abandoner, but are they using the same dataset to design next year’s product lineup, pricing bundles, or loyalty mechanics? Most aren’t. And with the Digital Personal Data Protection (DPDP) Act now demanding explicit consent and threatening fines up to ₹250 crore for violations, the “collect now, think later” approach is no longer sustainable.

Varun Mohan, Chief Commercial Officer for India at MiQ, sees first-party data as the most impactful source of insights precisely because it correlates directly to business performance. “FMCG brands can unlock better understanding of which products sell well in certain regions, which SKUs are regularly paired together in sales, the average customer lifetime value per geography and identify spikes and troughs in sales through the year,” he explains. That intelligence can drive not just festive promotions but year-round portfolio choices, supply chain alignment, and pricing strategies.

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The festive season also provides a unique lens into consumer behaviour. With GST tweaks boosting profitability this year, Mohan notes that major retailers are leaning heavily on first-party data to power their largest annual sales. It’s not just about moving stock; it’s about flagging micro-preferences through surveys and reviews, then feeding those signals back into product development. “Since this data is usually high-quality and reliable, it is a useful source to guide internal development,” Mohan says.

Global projections suggest that by 2026, over 70% of digital ad budgets will be anchored on first-party data. India, for now, is playing catch-up.

Meanwhile, Saloni Jain, Co-founder of Plus91Labs, calls it the foundation of modern FMCG strategy. “It is now the foundation for building a complete view of consumer intent and behaviour,” she says. Jain cites the example of a beverage company studying historical festive buying patterns to launch limited-edition packs in regions where demand is likely to peak. 

At the same time, loyalty programmes can be recalibrated, with her noting, “Identifying consumer groups that may disengage after Diwali and offering targeted festive rewards to maintain their interest.”

Still, Swagatika Das, CEO and Co-founder of Nat Habit, says most brands still treat first-party data as a performance lever, when in reality “recurring festive searches for paraben-free shampoo or sugar-free mithai aren’t just campaign signals — they’re indicators of whitespace for product innovation.” 

She points to micro-tests with loyal cohorts that can de-risk large-scale launches, and regional patterns — saffron-based skincare peaking in the North, coconut oil-based in the South — that guide smarter portfolio choices. “In many ways, first-party data is shifting from being ‘media currency’ to ‘customer capital,’” she notes, arguing that brands that unlock this mindset will build moats that outlast any single festive campaign.

Indeed, perhaps the bigger issue is mindset. Too often, brands treat data capture as the finish line. Anil K Pandit, Managing Partner for Data Strategy and Partnerships at Publicis Media, has argued in recent commentary that this is the wrong way to think. First-party data should be the starting point of a continuous value exchange — fuelling whitespace discovery, R&D guidance, and ongoing relationship currencies like loyalty mechanics and utilities. In other words, data should not just tell you who to target next week, but what to build next year.

That may sound lofty, but the numbers back it up. A McKinsey study found brands that fully leverage their consumer data see 2–3x the improvement in ROI and customer retention compared to peers. In a low-margin, high-frequency category like FMCG, that compounding effect can be the difference between defending market share and ceding it.

Venkat Mallik, Founder & CEO of J7, underscores the breadth of use cases. “First-party data can give really rich insights into customer behaviour and preferences,” he says. “This can be used to design festive strategies for offers, packaging and bundling decisions, messaging strategy (based on whether it’s for own use or gifting) and even stocking decisions.” But he stresses that the opportunity extends far beyond Diwali. “This can be useful for the festive season as well as for long-term strategic marketing decisions,” he notes.

The consumer side of the equation is also shifting fast. PwC reports that 63% of Indian internet users worry about how advertisers use their data. Also, clean, consent-driven data is also more accurate and dependable, which makes ROI easier to defend.

The DPDP Act, Jain argues, has accelerated the shift from broad-based data collection to consent-first models built on clear value exchange. “Leading FMCG companies are prioritising trust-based relationships where consumers willingly share their data in return for meaningful benefits such as personalised recommendations, exclusive discounts or early access to festive editions,” she says. 

On the privacy front, Das sees the DPDP Act as a reset button rather than a hurdle. “The festive season, with its surge in sign-ups and shopping, is the ultimate testing ground,” she says, adding that consent-first models and ethical targeting are becoming essential. From opt-ins that offer clear choices (“receive personalised Diwali offers” vs. “opt out”) to anonymisation practices that capture only what’s essential, she believes responsible data use doesn’t slow growth but accelerates it. “The brand that earns trust during the festive rush is the one customers will return to long after the lights fade,” Das says.

So where does this leave India’s FMCG marketers as they ramp up festive campaigns? Somewhere between the fizz of short-term fireworks and the grind of long-term infrastructure building. Festive campaigns will still sparkle, but the real prize lies in turning the clicks and coupons of this season into an intelligence engine that powers the next.

Because in the end, the question isn’t whether first-party data can boost this Diwali’s ROAS. It’s whether brands are ready to mine the ₹500 crore goldmine sitting under their noses, and use it to build moats that last long after the diyas are out.