Tentpole shows rake it in, as TV ad growth slows

Television advertising this festive season is showing a mixed trend. While marquee shows, big-ticket fiction launches and sporting events have drawn stronger-than-expected advertiser interest, the steady decline in GRP-driven spends and cutbacks from key categories like FMCG are weighing on overall momentum. As a result, ad revenues are expected to remain largely flat, mirroring last year’s trend despite the lift from impact properties.

Pricing check: Premiums hold, but only a modest rise

Against this soft backdrop, rate cards at the top end continue to command premiums, even though overall pricing has inched up only about 10% year-on-year. As of 2024, on smaller channels, costs typically started at around Rs 5,000 per 10 seconds, while prime-time slots on major channels or during special events could reach several lakhs. For Hindi GECs, Star Plus and Sony Entertainment Television charged between Rs 1,50,000 and Rs 2,00,000 per 10-second video ad, with Aston Band rates at Rs 18,000–21,000. Zee TV’s video ad rates are Rs 30,000–40,000 per 10 seconds, and Colors TV charges Rs 80,000–1,00,000. In regional markets, Star Jalsha’s video ad rates range from Rs 25,000–35,000 per 10 seconds (Aston Band Rs 22,000–25,000), Colors Marathi charges Rs 5,000–10,000 per 10 seconds, and Zee Marathi Rs 12,000–15,000 per 10 seconds, with Aston Band at Rs 22,000–27,000.

Also read: Commercial break for TV ads?

Impact franchises are doing the heavy lifting

In prime time, the big-appointment franchises are doing the heavy lifting. Week-by-week  numbers accessed by e4m showed KBC’s (airing at  9:00 pm on Sony ) rating easing from 0.47 to 0.38  across Weeks 32–36, Kyunki Saas Bhi Kabhi Bahu Thi (airing on Star Plus at 10:30 pm) held steady between 1.01 and 1.06 with a Week-34 peak at 1.09, and Bigg Boss (airing on Colors at 10:30 pm)opened at 0.70 for the grand premiere before settling at a range of 0.54- 0.61. 

Marquee shows are clearly monetising, but they’re lifting the peaks, not rebuilding the base.

As Trishul Bhumkar, Managing Partner, Zenith India, said, non-fiction over-indexes on male audiences, weekends and light TV viewers; the celebrity-led formats carry production costs roughly five times fiction, so unit costs are higher.

“The absolute value of investments on these shows will always be higher and that concentration of spend on tent poles is where the money is being made often at the expense of routine GRP buys which explains why impact nights look strong even as overall momentum stays mixed and toplines risk ending the season flat,” said Bhumkar.

Adds Sonal Jadhav, Managing Partner – West, Havas Media India, “Even in a market where overall TV ad spends are under pressure, marquee non-fiction and reality shows continue to command attention and investment. These tentpole properties cut through the clutter by combining star appeal, scale, and storytelling that feels both real and aspirational. Advertisers recognize the unique engagement these shows deliver, often exploring new categories or innovative activations to connect with audiences. In today’s crowded media landscape, it’s these flagship formats that remind us of television’s unmatched ability to create shared cultural moments and lasting brand impact.”

KBC economics underline the premium. Market insiders peg this season’s revenue target at Rs 350 crore against Rs 270 crore in production costs. A large share is Amitabh Bachchan’s fee, about Rs 1.25 crore per episode over 100 episodes (Rs 125 crore). Production is Rs 70 crore and marketing Rs 50 crore. A 10-second spot on KBC is around Rs 3 lakh, typically above comparable tentpoles like Bigg Boss (up to Rs 2.5 lakh). The pricing power rests on star credibility + premium positioning in the 9:00–10:30 pm band against top daily dramas.

Bigg Boss (Hindi) is also chasing scale, this season’s target is about Rs 320 crore, up from Rs 270 crore last year, validating advertiser appetite for high-impact, weekend-heavy formats. As Trishul Bhumkar notes, non-fiction over-indexes on male audiences, weekends and light TV viewers, carries 5× the production cost of fiction, and therefore attracts disproportionately higher absolute investments, concentrating money in a few tentpoles.

Fiction tells a different story. Kyunki Saas Bhi Kabhi Bahu Thi has Rs 100 crore in revenue despite soft ratings, showing that commercial success doesn’t always track audience traction; launch buzz, integrations, and distribution strategy can still deliver topline even when rating is modest.

Put together, the pattern is clear: impact shows are profitable and growing, but the reallocation of budgets toward tentpoles is not yet reviving the base GRP market, the key reason festive TV ad revenue is tracking flat despite standout nights.

Also read: It's a mix of everything: Rishi Negi on Bigg Boss

Also read: After 17 seasons and ₹350 crore in ads, is KBC still worth the bet for brands?

Consumer view: Linear vs CTV is one screen

A similar view was echoed by Girish Hingorani, Vice President, Marketing (Cooling & Purification Appliances) & Corporate Communications at Blue Star Ltd. Hingorani argued that whether it is linear or connected TV, consumers do not differentiate.

“For them, watching an ad during IPL on JioHotstar is still equivalent to watching it on TV. He believes marketers often complicate matters by separating linear and connected TV, but in reality, families in India continue to prefer content consumption on large screens. This is also why platforms like Netflix are growing, as they enable family viewing, similar to traditional television,” he said.

FMCG pullback 

A significant cutback in advertising spends by FMCG companies has already led to notable softness in ad revenues for India’s leading TV broadcasters in the first quarter ending June 30, 2025.

This pullback has been driven by subdued consumer demand, an extended sports calendar, and shifting media consumption patterns, all of which have raised concerns about the short-term viability of traditional TV advertising.

According to TAM data accessed by e4m, total ad duration on television during January to June 2025 declined by 14% compared to the same period in 2024. Within this, FMCG brands saw a 6% decline in H1 2025, dropping to 2,140 brands from 2,359 in H1 2024. FMCG advertisers also declined by 9%, falling from 895 to 837.

Top advertisers: H1 2024 vs H1 2025

In the first half of 2024, Hindustan Unilever-led television advertising with a 24% share in ad duration, maintaining its dominance. Reckitt Benckiser followed with an 18% share, while Godrej Consumer Products held 6%. P&G and Cadbury’s India rounded off the top five with 4% each. By the first half of 2025, Hindustan Unilever’s share had dropped slightly to 22%, indicating a more targeted strategy. Reckitt Benckiser increased its share to 19%, while Godrej remained steady at 6%. Coca-Cola India entered the top five with a 4% share, replacing Cadbury’s, likely due to a seasonal advertising push during the summer months. P&G maintained its 4% share.

Late-season upside: GST-led push?

Despite the visible challenges, some marketers expect a slight growth in television advertising, unlike others.

A senior marketer argued that the festive season, coupled with the implications of GST, could push ad revenues up by 7-8%.

They pointed out that several industries are sitting on inventory stuck due to GST-related issues, such as thousands of cars where both GST and cess have already been paid. This has created uncertainty about whether to sell the older stock or push new inventory.

Against this backdrop, the marketer believes that brands will not remain quiet during the festive season.

“They are likely to use this period as an opportunity to stimulate demand. Television ad revenues may not remain flat and could instead grow by 7–8%. Even during traditionally quiet periods such as Shraad, advertising activity has been visible this year across newspapers and other platforms. Whether it is due to desperation or opportunity, brands appear determined not to miss out on the festive window, as failing to advertise during this critical time could mean regretting missed sales opportunities later,” he said.

TV with digital, not versus

Another senior marketer said that despite increasing clutter, television continues to grow alongside digital platforms.

“For mass brands seeking mass reach, television remains indispensable and is still the most cost-effective medium for reaching a broad audience,” she said.

In their own company’s experience, spending has continued on television while also being allocated to digital, with both platforms working in tandem rather than one replacing the other.
She emphasized that India still has a large number of single-TV households, and for these families, television remains central to their media consumption.

“2025 is a unique year given the GST changes, which are expected to boost consumption during Diwali. With increased consumer spending, advertising activity, especially from FMCG food companies, is also expected to rise, thereby driving television ad revenues higher,” she said.

However, a JioStar spokesperson said that festive started on a strong note with Onam on the back of strong performance of Bigg Boss. "We expect it to grow further starting 22nd Sept with the start of Navratri and then peak towards Diwali. Considering the impact of the new GST rates, we anticipate a strong end to the festive too with brands across categories exploiting TV this festive,” the spokesperson shared.

Macro backdrop 

However, the broader backdrop reveals the challenges facing the television industry.

According to a FICCI-EY report, TV segment revenues fell 4.5% in 2024, marking the second consecutive year of decline after a 2% fall in 2023. Advertising revenue alone fell 6% on the back of a similar reduction in ad volumes and a 12% decline in the number of brands using television. Distribution revenue also fell by 3%, driven by a 6% reduction in Pay TV households, which lost 6 million subscribers to reach 111 million, partly offset by a slight increase in ARPU to Rs 281 (gross of taxes).

Linear TV ad volumes fell 6% in 2024, despite viewership remaining relatively stable. The number of advertisers using TV declined by 12% year-on-year. Hindi-speaking market channels bore the brunt of this fall, while regional channels gained share, capturing 16% more advertising volume than national channels, up from a 13% gap the previous year. With reduced ad volumes, pricing power remained weak for most broadcasters.

Bottom line

Taken together, these trends paint a picture of an industry caught in transition. On one hand, marquee properties and festive optimism continue to attract advertisers to television, and many marketers remain convinced that TV’s reach and cost-efficiency are unmatched for mass brands. On the other hand, sustained weakness in GRP-driven spending, cutbacks from FMCG, and structural shifts toward digital and connected TV are weighing down overall revenues. Whether the festive season ends flat or posts modest growth will depend on how effectively the strong performance of impact properties can counterbalance the drag from monthly GRP spends and subdued advertiser sentiment in key categories.