Real-money gaming exit triggers programmatic reset

Within days of the government approving the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Bill, 2025, India’s digital advertising market is staring at a structural reset. The sudden disappearance of real-money gaming (RMG) advertisers who pumped an estimated ₹9,000–10,000 crore annually into AdEx has left a gaping hole in performance-led spends. Their absence is expected to ripple quickly into programmatic, where the demand vacuum is already putting pressure on prices that advertisers pay per thousand views (CPM), per click (CPC), or per action (CPA) even as supply volumes remain largely intact.

Demand vacuum to hit pricing

Vipul Kedia, COO, India & Emerging Markets at Affle, breaks it down simply, “In India’s programmatic ecosystem, most of the inventory, particularly in-app ad slots, comes from casual and hypercasual games. Real-money and fantasy gaming apps were never significant suppliers of this inventory; their role was primarily on the demand side, being buyers of this inventory for performance campaigns. The recent ban therefore does not materially affect overall ad inventory available for programmatic buying.”

However, he added that their departure has left a clear gap on the demand side: “Their exit creates a demand vacuum that will put pressure on CPM, CPC, and CPA rates in the short term. We expect inventory volumes from casual and hyper casual gaming apps to remain unaffected, which means supply won’t shrink drastically. Publishers may initially lower rates to fill unsold slots, but other app verticals looking to scale quickly are likely to step in and absorb this freed-up inventory, stabilizing the market over time.”

How supply crunch would add to turbulence

While some experts believe the ban hits demand more than supply, others argue the shake-up will also pinch the supply side of programmatic. Sanket Savaliya, from native performance and programmatic platform MGID, pointed out that RMG apps were among the largest suppliers of mobile ad inventory, especially in the in-app space. With them gone, he warned of a ‘visible dip’ in available programmatic volumes, with advertisers likely to find fewer premium slots to buy in the immediate term.

Savaliya estimated that as much as 18–25% of in-app programmatic supply could vanish overnight, a short-term crunch that will push CPMs higher as competition intensifies for prime audiences. 

“When supply shrinks, competition intensifies, and CPMs rise especially on premium content. The smart advertisers will be those who quickly identify undervalued channels before the rest of the market catches on,” added Jatin Kapoor, MD of Adsflourish.

“That money won’t just disappear,” he said, pointing out that budgets are expected to flow into OTT sports, short video, and influencer-driven campaigns. 

“But the sheer aggressiveness with which gaming brands were fuelling digital spends will be hard to replicate.” He added that performance marketers, in particular, will feel the pinch as the absence of rewarded video ads drives CPAs upward, forcing brands to experiment with influencers, affiliates, native ad platforms, and content integrations.

Programmatic’s reset and adaptability

Others view the ban less as an existential blow and more as a reset. 

Tejas Rathod, Founder and COO at Mobavenue, said the episode underlines the adaptability of programmatic. 

“Gaming, with its sheer supply of high-engagement rewarded video inventory, accelerated programmatic adoption in India, but programmatic has never been limited to a single category. Its true strength lies in its adaptability, optimizing supply, diversifying demand, and recalibrating performance benchmarks across Connected TV, OTT, e-commerce, BFSI, retail, and emerging consumer tech,” he noted.

Rathod added that while short-term volatility in CPMs, CPCs, and CPAs is inevitable, the long-term opportunity lies in new digital-first categories stepping in to scale programmatic investments and occupy the void. 

“Programmatic is not shrinking; it is broadening. The absence of gaming will accelerate its role as the unifying, intelligent layer that ensures efficiency, accountability, and performance across channels. This reset will separate transactional ad-spend from value-driven marketing, and programmatic with its data, automation, and AI-led precision will be the backbone enabling brands to reimagine digital engagement in a more balanced, diversified, and sustainable way,” he said. 

This divergence of views highlights how complex the impact of the ban really is.

Growth momentum to stall, agencies brace for impact

While some industry leaders warn of immediate shocks to both demand and supply, others argue the change could force overdue diversification and smarter allocation of ad dollars. 

What most agree on, however, is that the absence of RMG brands will be felt most acutely in the short term particularly around high-visibility events like the IPL, where gaming apps had become some of the biggest buyers of inventory, often driving up CPMs for the entire market.

According to Nikhil Kumar, Chief Growth Officer at mediasmart, powered by Affle, real-money gaming advertisers have been among the largest buyers of digital inventory, particularly across Meta and Google, but held a modest share in the programmatic side. 

“As a fast-growing app category, RMG advertisers have been inherently dominant spenders, focusing more on high-impact, short-burst campaigns. In this sense, they were largely supply generators, not supply consumers,” he said. 

He added that while inventory volumes may not shrink significantly, the void left by gaming brands will weigh on growth momentum.

“With the departure of RMG brands, the growth momentum of overall advertising dollars is expected to shrink, creating short-term downward pressure on pricing and fill rates. The impact of RMG brands on advertising revenue was especially visible during the IPL season, where they became some of the largest buyers of inventory, influencing CPMs and overall ad revenue. It’ll be interesting to see how this pans out in the next IPL season, where this freed-up inventory may allow brands to diversify their ad spend across OTT, CTV, social, and influencer-driven channels,” sad Kumar.

From the agency side, the concern is just as sharp. 

Shradha Agarwal, Co-founder and Global CEO of Grapes Worldwide, said the sudden pause is a huge hit not just to media platforms but to creative and agency revenues as well. 

She pointed out that unlike alcohol brands, which rely on surrogate routes, RMG players were going “full hog” with mainstream advertising, leaving little in the way of alternatives once the ban kicked in. 

Agarwal added that a more calibrated framework such as age-gating and clearer audience targeting could have allowed for responsible advertising, instead of an outright freeze that catches the entire ecosystem off guard.

The true scale of disruption will likely be tested in the months ahead. 

Industry insiders point out that RMG brands had become some of the most aggressive buyers during the IPL and festive season, pushing up CPMs and commanding premium slots across platforms. 

With their sudden absence, this year’s IPL ad rush and Diwali campaigns will be the first major proving ground for how quickly OTT, CTV, e-commerce, fintech, and consumer brands can absorb the freed-up inventory and fill the gap in performance-led spends.

Clearly, the coming quarters will determine whether this vacuum accelerates innovation and forces marketers to spread their bets wider.