Prolonged US-Iran war can push newsprint prices up 10–12%

Escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States and parts of the Middle East in 2026 are prompting India’s print media industry to closely watch the potential ripple effects on one of its most critical inputs- newsprint. 

While prices remain stable for now, industry executives and analysts say that prolonged disruptions in global energy markets, shipping routes and currency movements could gradually push costs upward.

Newsprint, a key raw material for newspapers, has historically been sensitive to global commodity cycles. Energy costs, freight rates and supply chain disruptions play a significant role in determining prices, making geopolitical developments particularly relevant for the print sector.

The industry has only recently emerged from a period of steep input cost pressures. Following the pandemic, global supply chain disruptions and energy shocks pushed newsprint prices to nearly USD 1,000–1,050 per metric tonne. As logistics stabilised and demand softened, prices cooled to around USD 530–600 per tonne by late 2023 and through 2024.

In India, which imports a significant portion of its newsprint requirements, prices dropped from more than Rs 70 per kg at their peak to roughly Rs 48–52 per kg in recent months, according to industry estimates. The correction brought relief to publishers that had been struggling with rising input costs during the post-Covid recovery phase.

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Geopolitics, oil and shipping costs in focus

Experts say the trajectory of newsprint prices will depend largely on how the ongoing geopolitical tensions evolve, particularly their impact on oil prices and shipping routes.

Paper manufacturing is energy-intensive, and higher crude oil prices can increase production costs as well as transportation expenses. At the same time, shipping disruptions in major global routes can lead to higher freight charges, which directly affect import-dependent markets such as India.

Manoj Singh, consultant at Mangodata and former vice president at Madison Media, outlines three possible scenarios for the industry depending on the duration and severity of the conflict.

In the short term, if tensions persist only for a few weeks, newsprint prices could see a modest increase of around 2–5%. This would largely reflect immediate freight surcharges and rising energy costs passing through the supply chain.

If the conflict extends for several months, the impact could become more visible. Singh points out that past geopolitical shocks provide a useful benchmark. For instance, the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 triggered sharp increases in energy costs, leading to a 10–15% rise in paper prices in some regions.

A more severe scenario could emerge if shipping routes in the Middle East face prolonged disruptions. A closure or major disturbance in key maritime passages such as the Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices above $100 per barrel. In such circumstances, newsprint prices could climb between 10–20%, reflecting the historical relationship between energy prices and paper manufacturing costs.

However, Singh notes that weak global demand for newsprint could limit the full extent of such increases.

Advertising sentiment and demand dynamics

Beyond input costs, the broader advertising environment could also influence how the situation plays out for publishers.

A media buyer from a leading global agency said that advertisers are already showing early signs of caution amid geopolitical uncertainty.

“The immediate fallout is advertisers becoming cautious,” the buyer said. “But the cascading effect will come if the conflict is prolonged, with oil prices spiralling and imports getting affected. That could lead to cost inflation internally as well, and newsprint will be affected.”

The buyer added that the eventual impact will depend on how effectively India manages potential pressure on oil prices, the rupee and import supply chains. Measures such as sourcing from alternate suppliers and stabilising the domestic economy could help soften the blow.

Publishers adopt wait-and-watch approach

Despite the uncertainties, many publishers are refraining from making definitive predictions at this stage.

A senior executive from a leading English-language daily said it is too early to assess the scale of the potential impact.

According to the executive, the situation will depend heavily on how the demand-supply balance evolves globally and how long the geopolitical tensions persist.

“Everyone is waiting to see how things develop over the next few days or weeks before taking any decisions,” the executive said. “It may have an impact or it may not. It is very premature to say anything definitively at the moment.”

For now, the print industry appears to be benefiting from a relatively favourable cost environment after several years of volatility. Lower newsprint prices have helped publishers stabilise margins at a time when advertising growth remains uneven and competition from digital platforms continues to intensify.

However, the sector’s heavy dependence on imported raw materials means that global geopolitical developments can quickly translate into cost pressures. If the current conflict escalates or begins to disrupt energy markets and shipping routes, the industry may once again find itself navigating a volatile newsprint cycle.

Industry currently benefiting from lower prices

For now, this softer pricing environment is helping newspaper publishers maintain healthier margins.

During its Q3 FY26 earnings call, HT Media indicated that newsprint prices continue to remain lower than last year, supporting profitability. The company said that the current cost environment has also enabled it to manage discretionary spending more efficiently while focusing on strengthening its core business.

According to the company, prices remain below last year’s levels both for the quarter and on a year-to-date basis. It also expects the near-term outlook to remain largely stable, with adequate inventory cover in place.

“The market is indicating that there could be a potential shift in newsprint… this commodity moves in cycles, and we have been at the bottom of the cycle for some time,” the company said during the earnings call. Management added that it does not expect any major shift in the immediate next quarter, with reasonable inventory cover until the first quarter of the next financial year.

However, HT Media also noted that some upward movement may be visible thereafter as the commodity cycle turns.

Other publishers are seeing a similar pattern.

During the Q3 FY26 earnings call of DB Corp, executive director Girish Agarwal said newsprint prices remained stable during the quarter with some sequential corrections. On a year-on-year basis, prices were about 2% lower, while quarter-on-quarter they remained largely unchanged.

Agarwal said prices are expected to remain largely range-bound in the near term, although geopolitical developments and foreign exchange movements could introduce some volatility in the coming quarters.

He suggested that any increase is likely to be gradual rather than dramatic. According to him, prices may rise by a few percentage points due to currency fluctuations and higher sea freight costs, but the industry is not expecting a sharp spike at this stage.