Muted Q3FY23 for M&E due to ecomm companies slashing spends, inflation: Elara Capital

According to analysis by Karan Taurani, exhibitors saw improved performance thanks to movies like Avatar-The way of water, Drishyam 2, Kantara and Vikram Vedha

e4m by exchange4media Staff
Published: Jan 5, 2023 4:13 PM  | 4 min read
elara

"TV was the first traditional medium to report higher advertising revenue vs pre COVID levels last year (grew 7%-8% vs pre COVID levels)," said Karan Taurani, Senior Vice President - Research Analyst (Media, Consumer Discretionary & Internet)Elara Capital. Taurani shared his predictions for the M&E sector, noting that Q3FY23 has been relatively muted with revenues declining 5%-6%YoY vs pre COVID levels, despite positive impact of festive, primarily due to 1) lower spends by new age/e-commerce companies (cut ad. budgets by 30%-40%YoY) and 2) muted growth in FMCG vertical due to RM inflationary pressures YoY. Here are the rest of his predictions. 

Expect ad revenue growth of 8.5%/ 9%/12.4% for Zee/Sun/TV today QoQ respectively led by festive season but a decline of 12.8%/1%/8% YoY due to higher base (TV medium surpassed pre-COVID levels last year). Expect subscription revenue to remain flat for Zee and a growth of 6% QoQ for Sun; this is primarily on the back of uncertainty of NTO implementation; we expect subscription revenue to grow 8%-10% over the near term helped by price hikes, as NTO 3.0 will be implemented by Feb’23.

For SUNTV, the absence of IPL and other operating revenue (movie segment revenue - no major releases this quarter) will lead to total revenue of Rs 8,563mn – decline of 17.1% YoY and up 5.1% vs pre Covid levels of FY20. Z is expected to report flat revenue growth YoY, but up 4%/3%, QoQ/ pre covid, whereas TVT’s revenue is expected to decline of 4% YoY, due to high base in Q3FY22, although up 17%/11.5%, QoQ/pre covid respectively, driven by festive quarter.

Expect EBITDA margin to grow 80bps/down 90bps/ up 350bps QoQ, helped by higher ad spends; however, margins are estimated to decline 722bps/487bps/1720 bps YoY for Z/SUNTV/TVT respectively, due to 1) pressure on content costs (TV and digital) and 2) lower ad. spends. Expect PAT to decline 53%/ 8%/ 51% YoY and grow 25%/5%/ 54% sequentially (decline 59%/up 13%/down 19% vs pre Covid levels) for Z/SUNTV/TVT respectively.

Exhibitors - Better performance QoQ on a low base; remains lower vs pre COVID

Exhibitors are expected to perform better sequentially led by strong performance of movies like Avatar-The way of water, Drishyam 2, Kantara & Vikram Vedha, while other big budget movies like Cirkus, Ram Setu, Thank God, Bhediya have performed much below expectations. The festive season led to healthy performance in Q3FY23 sequentially, however growth was subdued when compared to Q1FY23.

Box Office revenue is expected to post an 85% recovery to pre-covid level in Q3FY23. Expect PVR & INOL box office revenues to grow 18% each sequentially but decline 15% each vs pre Covid levels (Q3FY20), 1) multiple large budget Hindi films report a below par performance and 2) small/medium budget films continue to struggle. Expect other metrics like ATP to grow 19%/12% vs pre-covid (growth of 12%/6.5% QoQ) for PVR/INOL helped premium content like Avatar, while Footfalls for PVR/Inox are expected to decline 34%/27% when compared to pre-covid levels as Hindi content fails to perform on a consistent basis. SPH is expected to grow in the range of 2-3% sequentially for both PVRL & INOL helped by premium content (Avatar).  Ad revenue recovery to be delayed in line with expectation and may only come back to pre-covid levels in FY24; expect ad revenue to recover towards 60% vs pre pandemic in Q3, despite festive season, primarily due to 1) muted performance of Hindi content which drives a large portion of ad.spends and 2) challenged macro environment, wherein ad. spends across verticals are under pressure. We estimate an EBITDA margin of 30%/32% for PVRL/INOL (incl INDAS), which is 360bps/90bps lower vs pre COVID levels; metrics like ATP/SPH have been able to offset some negative impact of lower footfalls and helped support profitability.

Radio - Still struggling to reach pre pandemic levels

Radio medium has been growing slowly compared to other forms of media while there has been a substantial shift of consumers towards digital. Expect ENIL/MBL to report revenue growth/decline of 14%/7% YoY (down of 40%/20.4% vs Q3FY20 – pre pandemic levels) respectively; in terms of ENIL, expect non-radio segment to recover at around 83% (vs pre pandemic levels), helped by normalisation of events/activations/concerts; Believe ENIL’s non radio business will continue to report traction over near term. Expect ENIL/MBL to report an EBITDA Margin of 20.6%/12% in Q3FY23.

 

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Dr Praveer Sinha to be part of enba jury panel

Sinha is the CEO & MD of The Tata Power Company Limited

By exchange4media Staff | Mar 14, 2023 8:18 AM   |   2 min read

Praveen Sinha

Dr Praveer Sinha, CEO & MD of The Tata Power Company Limited, India’s largest integrated power company, has joined the exchange4media News Broadcasting Awards (ENBA) jury panel. With a rich experience of nearly 36 years, Dr Sinha has expertise in Power Generation and Distribution sector in India.

Dr Sinha previously served as the CEO & MD of Tata Power Delhi Distribution Limited (TPDDL), a Public Private Partnership with the Delhi Government. He is also the Co-Chairman of the CII National Committee on Power as also on various Industry bodies.

Dr Sinha is a qualified Electrical Engineer and has done Master’s in Business Law from National Law University, Bangalore and has also completed his PhD. from Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi. He is a visiting Research Associate at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Boston, USA and is also a distinguished Visiting Scholar at the Faculty of Engineering and Architectural Science, Ryerson University, Canada.

ENBA was formulated by the exchange4media Group in 2008 with the objective of recognizing the best in television news, and to reward industry leaders who are responsible for shaping the future of television broadcasting in India. This year, ENBA is in its 15th edition and the jury will be led by Sunil Arora, a senior bureaucrat and former Election Commissioner of India.

In the last editions, the ENBA jury was led by Harivansh Narayan Singh – Deputy Chairman, Rajya Sabha, Dr Kiran Karnik – Former President – Nasscom, Dr Nasim Zaidi - Former Chief Election Commissioner of India, SY Quraishi – Former Chief Election Commissioner of India, N Ram – Chairman, Kasturi & Sons Ltd., Former Editor–in-chief The Hindu and Group Newspapers, Sanjay Gupta – Managing Director – Star India.

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Varanium Cloud to acquire shares from Fastway Transmissions

The acquisition will be worth Rs 2,683 crore

By exchange4media Staff | Mar 4, 2023 6:25 PM   |   1 min read

Varanium

Varanium Cloud Ltd. will be acquiring up to 14,53,44,256 equity shares with a face of Rs 10 each from Fastway Transmissions Private Limited. The total purchase consideration will amount to Rs 2,683 crore.

As per the company, the consideration payable shall be discharged by way of consideration in cash, the company's statement said.

The acquisition will be subject to execution of the Share Purchase Agreement and other related definitive documents.

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Devraj Sanyal elevated to Chairman and CEO of Universal Music India & South Asia

He has also taken on the additional role of SVP, Strategy for Asia Pacific, Middle East and Africa

By exchange4media Staff | Mar 2, 2023 10:11 AM   |   1 min read

Devraj sanyal

Devraj Sanyal has been elevated to Chairman and CEO of Universal Music India & South Asia. Prior to this, Sanyal was the MD & CEO of Universal Music India and South Asia, based in Mumbai. He has also taken on the additional role of SVP strategy for The AMEA (Asia Pacific, Middle East and Africa).

He has been associated with Universal Music India since 2011. Prior to that, he was Group CEO of Percept Sports & Entertainment, which includes music, events, television & intellectual properties, branded content & entertainment and talent management divisions. Sanyal also co-founded the prominent Asian electronic music festival, Sunburn, with Percept Ltd.

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MLA Ashish Shelar on ENBA jury panel

Shelar is currently serving as the Bhartiya Janata Party Mumbai president

By exchange4media Staff | Feb 27, 2023 2:39 PM   |   1 min read

shelar

Ashish Shelar, Member of the Legislative Assembly of Maharashtra, joins the ENBA jury panel.

Shelar is currently serving as the Bhartiya Janata Party Mumbai president. An active sports administrator, he has held several prestigious positions like Vice President of the Mumbai Cricket Association and Vice President of the Rajasthan Sports Club.

He has been the Mumbai Secretary for the Akhil Bhartiya Vidyarthi Parishad (ABVP).

The ENBA jury this year will be led by Sunil Arora, a senior bureaucrat, and former Election Commissioner of India.

In the last editions, the ENBA jury was led by Sh. Harivansh Narayan Singh – Deputy Chairman, Rajya Sabha, Dr. Kiran Karnik – Former President – Nasscom, Dr. Nasim Zaidi - Former Chief Election Commissioner of India, S.Y. Quraishi – Former Chief Election Commissioner of India, N. Ram – Chairman, Kasturi & Sons Ltd., Former Editor–in-chief The Hindu and Group Newspapers, Sanjay Gupta – Managing Director – Star India.

exchange4media formulated enba in 2008 with the objective of recognizing the best in television news, and to reward industry leaders who are responsible for shaping the future of television broadcasting in India.

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Internet growth declined in India in FY22: TRAI

The Internet subscriber base in FY22 stood at 824.8 million, compared to 825.3 million as on 31 March 2021, says TRAI report

By exchange4media Staff | Feb 24, 2023 8:42 AM   |   2 min read

Internet users

India boasts of having the world's second-largest mobile phone market with more than a billion users. Yet, internet growth in the country appears to have declined over the past year. 

According to the latest TRAI annual report, the internet subscriber base, as on 31st March 2022, stood at 824.8 million, compared to 825.3 million as on 31 March 2021. 

This means nearly 0.5 million (5 lakh subscribers) have fallen off the internet between 2021-22, a year which was marked by covid-19 pandemic and lockdown resulting in massive job losses. 

The degrowth was recorded in both broadband and narrowband segments. The narrowband decline was gradual throughout FY22. But in the case of broadband, March 22 quarter was particularly bad as the number of internet subscribers fell from 792 million to 788.2 million.

This degrowth is remarkable especially since India is gearing up to welcome 5G. 

The overall telecom subscriber base registered a decrease of 34.27 million subscribers in this period; from 1201.20 million in FY21 to 1166.93 million in FY22, the TRAI report says. 

The wireless subscriber base, people who access the internet via mobile phone, was 1142.09 million at the end of 31 March, 2022 in comparison to 1180.96 million a year ago, registering a decrease of 38.87 million subscribers during the financial year 2021-22.

Smartphones are the main gateway to go online - and this is where growth is flattening. India Smartphone Market Declined by 10% in 2022 to 144 Million Units, according to the International Data Corporation ’s (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. This is the lowest figure since 2019, with a 10% decline YoY (year-over-year). 

The last quarter was particularly bad when shipments declined 27% YoY to 30 million units. Steep rise in the cost of mobile phones due to inflation is being blamed for the dwindling demand. 

“The ASP (average selling price) hit a record US$224, rising 18% YoY in 2022. The entry-level segment (sub-US$150) shrank to 46% of the market, down from 54% a year ago. The dearth of new launches in this critical mass segment was a barrier for new smartphone users, thus limiting the overall market’s growth,” Upasana Joshi, Research Manager, Client Devices, IDC India, said in a statement. 

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Shazia Ilmi joins ENBA jury panel

The ENBA jury this year will be led by Sunil Arora, a senior bureaucrat, and former Election Commissioner of India

By exchange4media Staff | Feb 22, 2023 12:52 PM   |   1 min read

shazia ilmi

Shazia Ilmi, former journalist and politician joins the ENBA jury panel.

Ilmi has over 15 years of experience in journalism and documentary filmmaking. As a television journalist, she led the media campaign of an anti-corruption bill. She hosted and produced a famous prime time news show called Desh Videsh on Star News.

Ilmi has been a member of the International Association of Women in Radio and Television. She has been an active politician since 2011. She is currently a spokesperson for the Bharatiya Janata Party.  

The enba jury this year will be led by Sunil Arora, a senior bureaucrat, and former Election Commissioner of India.

In the last editions, the ENBA jury was led by Sh. Harivansh Narayan Singh – Deputy Chairman, Rajya Sabha, Dr. Kiran Karnik – Former President – Nasscom, Dr. Nasim Zaidi - Former Chief Election Commissioner of India, S.Y. Quraishi – Former Chief Election Commissioner of India, N. Ram – Chairman, Kasturi & Sons Ltd., Former Editor–in-chief The Hindu and Group Newspapers, Sanjay Gupta – Managing Director – Star India. 

exchange4media formulated enba in 2008 with the objective of recognizing the best in television news, and to reward industry leaders who are responsible for shaping the future of television broadcasting in India.

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Anthony Yesudasan’s last rites to be performed in Delhi today

The last rites will be held at 3pm on 21st Feb. at the Army Cremation Ground, URI Enclave, Barar Square, New Delhi.

By exchange4media Staff | Feb 21, 2023 11:33 AM   |   1 min read

Tony

The last of Anthony (Tony) Yesudasan, former top executive Reliance Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group’s who passed away on 20th Feb will be held today 3pm  at:- Army Cremation Ground, URI Enclave, Barar Square, New Delhi.

It must be mentioned that Jesudasan was a close aide of Dhirubhai Ambani’s younger son Anil Ambani and was associated with the Reliance group for close to three decades. He has been working closely with Ambani since the conglomerate split in 2006 and the Reliance ADA Group was formed. 

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