Trump's tariff tango: A 90-day waltz or a prelude to Trade War?

In a manoeuvre that feels more like a PR tactic than trade policy, President Donald Trump has announced a 90-day suspension of tariffs on most U.S. trading partners—while slamming the tariff hammer down on China, raising duties on Chinese goods to a thumping 125%. It’s a dramatic, almost cinematic pivot, but one that offers little clarity to countries like India caught in the crosscurrents of this increasingly chaotic trade dance.

For India, which has already been hit with a flat 26% tariff on exports to the U.S. covering critical sectors like automotive, electronics, FMCG, IT, and textiles, the 90-day pause is less of a reprieve and more of a reset button on anxiety. Yes, there’s breathing room, but also the lingering sense that the next blow is only a tweet away.

The U.S. administration’s explanation—that this is merely a window for “constructive trade dialogue”—feels like boilerplate diplomacy. Especially since key sectors that drive both exports and domestic advertising in India are still squarely in the blast radius. Automotive exports are projected to dip by double digits, which in turn means pared-down ad budgets and quieter media plans—particularly for global and premium segments that typically dominate Indian ad space during festive seasons and auto expos.

Similarly, electronics—a sector already battered by supply chain tremors—has seen brands recalibrate, pulling back on splashy U.S.-focused campaigns and instead funneling spend into more conservative domestic strategies. For India’s marketing industry, which was cautiously optimistic about a rebound in 2025, this kind of regulatory whiplash adds another layer of uncertainty.

This latest policy pirouette also lands just as India's ad industry was starting to find its footing. With digital advertising projected to grow over 6% this year, and TV finally coexisting with digital rather than fighting for the same pie, brands were beginning to plan with some semblance of confidence. Now, with the rug once again being yanked from under export-heavy sectors, that optimism is being walked back.

And while the markets may have popped champagne over the 90-day pause—the S&P surged, oil yo-yoed—India’s real economy doesn't have the luxury of celebrating a short-term halt while staring down long-term ambiguity. Domestic agencies and marketing leaders are already reviewing campaign spends with a sharpened pencil, as dollar-linked revenues look shaky and the tariff drama remains unresolved.

The Indian government, for its part, is reportedly weighing relief measures—interest subsidies, export diversification schemes, the usual suspects. But policy responses in New Delhi often move slower than Washington’s chaos cycles, and businesses aren’t holding their breath.

In the end, Trump’s tariff shuffle feels less like strategy and more like a delay tactic. And for India’s advertisers, marketers, and export-reliant brands, it’s yet another reminder that global trade under Trump is a game of snakes and ladders—with a lot more snakes than promsIed ladders.