Global advt to grow by 19% in '21 with 15% higher ad revenue than '19: GroupM TYNY Report
The report also says that global advertising, including U.S. political, to exceed $1 trillion in 2026, up from $641 billion in 2020 and $522 billion in 2016
GroupM has released its Global Mid-Year Media Forecast that details how at the midpoint of 2021, advertising growth for the year is far exceeding previous expectations. This has led us to a major revision of the forecast for this year and beyond.
Some of the key factors causing rapid growth:
- Faster than expected expansions of app ecosystems
- Rapid small business formation activities
- The growing role of cross-border media marketplaces
Here’s the industry overall forecast:
- 2021 growth: 19% (excluding U.S. political advertising), a significant upward revision from our December forecast and 15% higher ad revenue than 2019.
- We now expect global advertising, including U.S. political, to exceed $1 trillion in 2026, up from $641 billion in 2020 and $522 billion in 2016.
- Concentration within the industry has increased over this time: in 2020, the top 25 media companies represented 67% of total advertising revenue. That same group of companies accounted for 42% in 2016.
- Several markets should see better than 20% growth, including the U.K., Brazil, China and India.
- Many others will rise by the high teens, including Canada, Australia and the U.S.
Here are four areas that were considered in detail as we reach the halfway point of 2021:
- Digital advertising: We now forecast 26% growth for all forms of pure-play digital media versus 15% at the time of our December update.
- Expectations for other years are also raised, although to a lesser degree.
- Television advertising: Television is now expected to grow by 9.3% in 2021, an improvement from our prior 7.8% expectation.
- Beyond this year, we expect low single-digit growth for the broadly defined medium, including what we call Connected TV+ (the document has a sidebar that details how we are defining Connected TV+).
- We estimate that globally Connected TV+ inventory accounted for $16 billion in media company ad revenue, up by 25% over 2020 levels. We anticipate Connected TV+ ad revenue will grow to $31 billion globally by 2026
- Audio advertising: Expectations for audio were raised significantly in this update,
with a forecast now at 18% growth rather than December’s 8.7% level.
- However, following 2020’s 27% decline, even with these revisions, we do not expect the medium to return to 2019 levels any time soon.
- OOH advertising: Outdoor advertising should fare well, growing by 19% in 2021.
- Although our 2021 forecast represents a slightly slower pace of growth than we anticipated in December, 2022 expectations are now slightly higher than before.
- Longer-term, OOH is benefitting from growing interest in the medium and is aided by new digital formats that allow for incremental sources of demand to emerge.
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