Simon Long, South Asia Bureau Chief, New Delhi.

India tends to make the whole liberalization process very complicated. There are far too many debates on the subject.

Is India shining? Not quite, says The Economist in a survey report that was presented to leaders of the Indian corporates this week. The report says, “This indeed is a moment of shining economic opportunity for India, and if Mr Vajpayee’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) succeeds in leading its coalition to another election victory, it should be better placed to take advantage of it.”

The survey clearly indicates that serious concerns like fiscal deficit, unemployment and income disparity need to be addressed even as the nation talks about the world of growth opportunities. The Economist verdict is then marked by cautious optimism. Simon Long, South Asia Bureau Chief, The Economist, who presented the report to the corporate leaders, makes no bones about the hype that envelopes the feel-good campaign. Long, who has been with The Economist since 1995 (first as South-East Asia correspondent, and then as Finance and Economics Editor and Deputy Head of Global Agenda, The Economist’s updated Internet service) believes it would be in the fitness of things to carry out a reality-check. He shared his views on the subject in an interview with Rajiv Raghunath of exchange4media.com. Excerpts:

Q. It appears that the feel-good factor is more about the future than the present. Do you agree? Absolutely. After all, the current economic uptrend only represents the last three quarters of the year. The recent growth was fuelled by good monsoons but that may not be the case always. Of course, one would look at the pace of reforms too.

Q. To what extent the recent reforms were triggered by external factors? A combination of external factors as well as internal dynamics had provided the impetus for change. Of course, the line on IMF-World Bank pressure has been used over the years as a useful cover.

Q. Your reading of the trend? I am cautiously optimistic.

Q. What is your assessment of the pace of reforms in India? Last year saw a sudden spurt in liberalization but it happened due to the electoral politics. The efforts were cleared made with an eye on the forthcoming General elections. The key issue is, will the government that gets elected to power carry forward the agenda.

Q. Would you say that the ‘India Shining’ campaign is essentially political? It certainly is a political statement made with the purpose of engendering the feel-good factor. The hype is perceptible. Nonetheless, India is at threshold of major economic opportunities. Aiding the process is the emerging political stability in the domestic sphere, peace talks with Pakistan and the global business uptrend.

Q. Any concerns you would like to share on the current growth phase? Well, the services sector has shown remarkable growth, powered by the outsourced businesses. But there are protectionist trends surfacing in this sphere that may impact the Indian economy. What is alarming is that the industrial sector has actually shrunk. The services sector has created huge job opportunities but the manufacturing sector cannot be overlooked. It is important that sectors like pharmaceuticals, automobiles, cement, etc. do well.

Q. What are your observations on the Indian media post-liberalization? India tends to make the whole liberalization process very complicated. There are far too many debates on the subject. Liberalisation should have moved faster.

There are huge growth opportunities for media here, particularly with respect to television, what with 80 million owning television sets and 40 million viewers for cable television in the country.