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Percept Media Lab launches; forecasts IPL 5 viewership

10-April-2012
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Percept Media Lab launches; forecasts IPL 5 viewership

Percept has launched a new unit, Percept Media Lab, with the objective of offering global strategic perspective to MarCom planning. It will be Indianised and hence, will work for the diverse and unique Indian market.

Headquartered in Mumbai, Percept Media Lab is an independent cell of specialists from research, analytics and MarCom (Marketing Communications) planning sector and is led by Shripad Kulkarni, CEO, Allied Media. Currently, the new unit has staff strength of 12. The Lab has an exclusive tie-up with PointLogic, a player in analytics and MarCom planning. QnQ, which is headed by Ashit Mallick, is the consumer insights partner.

In an interaction with exchange4media, Kulkarni said that the investment in the lab was mainly in talent, research and analytics. “We have earmarked a very big budget for research and analysis over the next 12 months. This is high by media AoR standards. It is an investment into the future and currently doesn’t have a revenue objective,” he said.

Forecasting IPL 5 viewership
The first report released by Percept Media Lab is a statistical viewership analysis of Indian Premier League (IPL) season 5. Elaborating on the methodology adopted for the analysis, Kulkarni said, “TAM data for IPL 1 to IPL 4 was used to understand viewing patterns. A statistical model was deployed for the forecast. The technique used gives adequate weight to all IPL seasons and not higher for the latest data.”

“We took a robust measure of GRPs generated by live IPL with weekly data as the variable. We predicted the weekly GRPs and derived match ratings. Number of matches in each week and stage at which they are being played such as league, qualifiers, etc., have been considered while developing the model. Pre-IPL non-cricket weeks, too, were considered for measuring the impact of IPL on GEC and movie genres,” he added.

He further informed that Percept Media Lab has developed the forecasting model purely on the basis of past data, without being driven by any qualitative opinion (Delphi Method). “We are not planning to be in the research space; we have added value to what TAM delivers,” he shared.

The IPL forecasting study would benefit any media planner or marketer who wants to talk to SEC AB Males as they would consider IPL in some form, or at least bank on IPL programming line-up of news channels.

“IPL needs an entertainment quotient fillip around week five. “Planners must schedule their non-IPL spots meticulously to minimise drop in deliveries,” Kulkarni elucidated.

Key findings
As per the Percept Media Lab study, IPL 5 is expected to continue its dominance in the 15+ Male, SEC AB segment, however, more number of matches may not translate into more time spent on viewing matches.

In the opening week, in the 15+ Male SEC AB segment, IPL 5 is expected to register a moderate eight per cent increase in GRPs as compared to IPL 4.

Hardcore statistical analysis and research show that audience segment 15+ Female SEC
ABC viewership (GRPs) of IPL5 is projected to grow by 17 per cent, as compared to IPL4. However, IPL share of viewing among women is steadily declining and top three GEC channels together had overtaken IPL in the last season.

The huge proportion of single TV houses could become a factor in the equation for men versus women viewership and is expected to be evenly poised for IPL 5, 2012. Finally, it would be interesting to see who wins the fight for the remote in households in India.

Following this IPL 5 study, the next big initiative of Percept Media Lab is an M3 Study, which combines a message and 360-degree media touch-points to deliver market share. At the heart of the study is a massive 20,000 sample size consumer research, which will explore the path of purchase for 10 diverse product categories. The study will measure the importance of key drivers for each of the categories and perception of top brands. The high point of this study will be a unique M3 model in collaboration with Pointlogic.

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