NDTV is gearing up to present its election analysis through a series of inter-related opinion and exit polls over the next two months. The rigorous polling exercise will cover over 350 (out of the 543) Lok Sabha constituencies with a total sample size of over 2 lakh.
The sample selection methodology is based on electoral rolls to ensure a random sample with other technology innovations and new methods of interviewing voters (for example, wherever feasible, women field-workers interviewing female voters).
The sample size for the first opinion poll is 46,571 and the number of constituencies covered is 154.
Computer Aided Personal Interviews (CAPI) will be conducted for all polls to ensure better data quality.
There will be pure random sampling of voters listed in the electoral rolls (for face to face interviews).
The channel will also undertake a separate re-contact exercise through phone calls just before the elections to gauge shift of voters’ opinion over time. These opinion polls will be conducted in three phases, which will seek to understand the mood of the nation and electoral preferences for parties; get a pulse of the nation and analyse shifts in voter perception and preference followed by an exit poll for seat prediction state-by-state.
NDTV will be using innovative methods to ensure better data quality which will include regular updates and tracking through mobile telephonic-surveys, votes to seats conversion based on proprietary IPR using homogenous swing zones, multi-party swings and margins of victory and changes in the extent of vote-splitting in each homogeneous swing zone.