The fourth edition of MEC IPL TV Rating Prediction has some positive forecasts for the fifth season of IPL T20 matches. The study also brings out some areas that would need attention for the long-term survival of the series.
The study shows a 2.5 per cent increase in viewership for the series in comparison to IPL season four. It predicts an average rating of 3.8 for the matches for the target audience C&S ABC 15+ in the all India market.
MEC has used a two-step process – channel share and PUT (People Using television) – to forecast ratings for each match, using data from the past IPLs and major cricket events telecast on TV over the last four years. From a team-wise ratings forecast viewpoint, MEC IPL TV Rating Prediction study shows that while most top team matches are expected to rate higher than previous season, they would not be as high as IPL 1, 2 and 3. Mumbai Indians, Chennai Super Kings and Kolkata Knight Riders are estimated to rate the highest.
The study shows that Mumbai Indians are the clear favourites to win IPL 5, followed by Chennai Super Kings. In fact, Mumbai Indians and Chennai Super Kings continue to be the most popular teams in IPL 5 as well. The lowest scoring teams on this count, this season, are Kings XI Punjab and Deccan Chargers.
Two factors that add to IPL viewership are home teams and favourite teams. The other factor that leads to higher viewership is Indian stars playing.
Lesser people are familiar with team compositions this year and one reason for this could also be that 38 per cent lesser audience viewed the bidding process this year in comparison to last year.
In IPL 4, 67 per cent respondents had said their interest in IPL had increased over seasons. Over the years, this number was at 56 per cent. Fatigue was slightly higher at 16 per cent compared to 2011, where it was at 10 per cent. Around 23 per cent said they would spend more time watching IPL this year in comparison to the 29 per cent last year. However, 65 per cent, an increase of five per cent from last season, said they would spend similar time watching IPL this year. Only 12 per cent respondents said they would spend lesser time on IPL this season.
Thought behind the process
MEC employed a combination of consumer research and strategic factor modelling for this study. According to Geetha Shiv, MEC National Director, Analystics and Insight, “The consumer research helps in assessing ground realities such as overall interest in IPL Season 5, likelihood to watch IPL on television, team and player popularities. The research has been done across the nine IPL cities with a 100 sample per city among men and women, 15 years+, SEC ABC.”
IPL is an example of a situation where the investment returns are measured in terms of the viewership that each match generates. Sunder Muthuraman, Managing Partner, Meritus Analytics explained, “This is where we have applied best-in-class statistical method known as GLM to predict the ratings each match will generate. The GLM is a general term that encompasses a wider variety of multi-variate regression methods. An important point to note is that we have been able to include two types of factors in the model. The first being the data from past viewing behaviour of IPL and cricket, and the second is the popularity score for each team that was generated through a large sample survey.
IPL’s presence on digital platforms is also impacting television viewership. Watch this space to learn more.