The results of the much awaited Pitch-Madison Media Advertising Outlook 2009 are out. The study provides an exhaustive analysis of the year gone by, in terms of advertising spends by media, by product categories and traces the important events during the year and ends with a commentary on what to expect in 2009. After a double digit growth for over a decade, the study cautions the media and advertising industry honchos to prepare for a major slowdown in growth and projects a growth of only 2 per cent in 2009. This low growth projection must be viewed against the backdrop of a fall in advertising markets (negative growth) around the world.
The study also mentions that whilst continued display of faith by the FMCG sector in advertising is likely to help television’s fortunes, the coming General elections should help the cause of press, which is expected to remain flat. However, Internet and radio will enjoy robust growth even in these troubled times, but cinema and outdoor are likely to de-grow in 2009.
Speaking on the study, Sam Balsara, Chairman & Managing Director, Madison World, “The study attempts to make a realistic assessment of what is and what will be, rather than what we would like it to be. Whilst I am myself disappointed at the low growth rate projected for the current year, I am hoping that sentiment will change over the next few months enabling us to revise our forecast. Advertising is driven largely by sentiment. Optimism and confidence in the future are big drivers of advertising growth.”
Anurag Batra, Chairman & Editor-in-Chief of exchange4media Group, said, “Yes, media business is going through tough times. It is part of the larger economic cycle. While in 2008 we grew by 17 per cent, Indian media and advertising industry is facing a stagnation in near future. However, all is not lost. Indian media business can rebound by focusing on its strengths.”
Amit Agnihotri, Co-founder & Director of exchange4media Group, and Editor of Pitch magazine, said, “This is our sixth annual survey, and results are indeed most startling. While in 2008 the industry suffered a setback in last three months, particularly November and December, the worst is yet to come. We are forecasting almost no growth in adex in 2009. I am afraid that the Great Media Slowdown is here.”
The highlights of the study for the year 2008 are:
• The Pitch-Madison study places the advertising industry in 2008 at Rs 20,717 crore, a 17 per cent increase over 2007.
• The previous year’s study had forecast the advertising spend in 2008 to be at Rs 21,314 crore, a 20 per cent growth over 2007, but a slowdown in the second half of 2008 has led to a lower growth rate of 17 per cent.
• This 17 per cent growth is substantially lower than the 22 per cent growth achieved in each of the previous two years.
• Print continues to hold the largest share of pie at 47 per cent, although print did seem to loose steam in second half of 2008, and lost a 1 per cent share compared to 2007.
• TV is a close No. 2 with 41 per cent of the advertising pie, and has gained a 1 per cent share compared to 2007.
• Print and TV continue to dominate the advertising market with a combined share of 88 per cent.
• Outdoor, in 2008 grew by 11 per cent, substantially lower than previous year’s growth rate of 28 per cent.
• Internet, though on a very small base, grew at 45 per cent and has now reached a respectable size of Rs 363 crore.
• Radio registered a robust growth of 38 per cent, having grown by 68 per cent the previous year.