Euro RSCG’s Bollywood Predictameter is a tool that predicts the fate of Bollywood movies. The Predictameter, which was launched last year, estimated the fate of 18 movies, at a strike rate of 83 per cent in 2006.
The Predictameter will forecast the fate of 30 movies to be released in next four months, and according to its predictions, the year 2007 will have more flops and average grossers, a few hits, and not a single superhit.
In the year 2006, the fate of movies like ‘Umrao Jaan’, ‘Omkara’, ‘Golmaal’, ‘Lage Raho Munnabhai’, ‘Kabhi Alvida Naa Kehna’, ‘Salaam-E-Ishq’ and ‘Nishabd’ were predicted. The Predictameter had successfully estimated that mega budget films like ‘Salaam-e-Ishq’ and ‘Omkara’ would not do well at the box office. As was forecast, ‘Omkara’ recorded box office seat occupancy of merely 25 per cent in the first week of its launch, while ‘Umrao Jaan’ recorded occupancy of just 30-40 per cent.
To predict the fate of the movies to be released in 2007, a study was conducted in five markets of Mumbai, Delhi, Lucknow, Bangalore and Ahmedabad. The respondents were first exposed to critical information about each movie before their opinions were recorded.
A large percentage of respondents indicated that ‘Chak De India’ would at best be an average grosser, while ‘Saanvariyan’, the much-touted launch vehicle of Ranbir Kapoor and Sonam Kapoor, would just about breakeven at the turnstiles. Other films deemed to be average grossers include the big budget ‘Om Shanti Om’ and ‘Ram Gopal Varma Ki Aag’, among others.
It has been predicted that Sajid Khana’s directorial venture ‘Heyy Baby’ would do well at the box office. The other films expected to do well this year are ‘Jodha Akbar’ and ‘Darling’.
One of the biggest releases of the year, Madhuri Dixit’s comeback film ‘Aaja Nachle’ has been deemed a flop, apart from ‘Kaafila’, which has already been released, ‘Laaga Chunari Mein Daag’ and ‘Drona’.
Some of the other movies covered in the study are ‘Chasmal’, ‘Speed’, ‘Aggar’, ‘Love Story 2050’, ‘Buddha Mar Gaya’ and ‘Victoria No. 203’.