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International: Zenith slashes global ad forecast again

03-September-2001
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International: Zenith slashes global ad forecast again

According to a forecast by Zenith Media published on Aug. 31, the global advertising recession is going to get worse and will not return to real growth in the big seven advertising markets in 2002.

In its previous July report covering 55 countries, Zenith predicted 1.5% worldwide growth in 2001 versus 2000, or minus 1.5% in real terms (after allowing for inflation). Within this, the big seven markets were predicted to grow zero (minus 2% in real terms).

In its previous July report covering 55 countries, Zenith predicted 1.5% worldwide growth in 2001 versus 2000, or minus 1.5% in real terms (after allowing for inflation). Within this, the big seven markets were predicted to grow zero (minus 2% in real terms).

Although a serious recession, the media buying and planning specialist held out hopes for a return to real growth in 2002.

The company says that will not happen in the biggest advertising markets, based on data in today's quarterly update that covers the seven markets which together account for 75% of global advertising expenditure (U.S., Japan, Germany, U.K. France, Italy, and Spain).

Zenith now expects the seven markets will shrink 2.6% this year (minus 4.7% in real terms), and grow only 0.8% in 2002 (which is minus 0.8% in real terms). The researchers predict similar deterioration in many smaller countries in the worldwide December report.

In the big seven countries alone, a further $8 billion in media spending has come out of our 2001 forecast over the last quarter, which is the size of the Italian advertising market. ``Looking out to 2003, $21 billion has disappeared, equivalent to a whole Germany, the world's third largest ad market,'' the report says.

The continuing decline in corporate profitability among the world's largest advertisers is the main reason behind the current recession.

The Zenith report predicts advertising expenditure in the major media, including TV, newspapers, magazines, radio, cinema and outdoor.

Zenith's growth forecasts for 2001 vs 2000 (not adjusted for inflation) are U.S (-4.2%), France (0.8%), Germany (-4.0%), Italy (3.1%), Spain (-1.8%), U.K. (-3.0%) and Japan (1.5%).

Growth forecasts for 2002 vs 2001 (not adjusted for inflation) are U.S. (0.1%), France (3.6%), Germany (2.0%), Italy (5.2%), Spain (1.8%), U.K. (2.0%) and Japan (0.7%). Zenith Media is media buying and planning specialist with 89 offices in 45 countries in Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and the Americas. It's owned in a 50:50 joint venture by Cordiant Communications Group and Publicis Groupe.

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