New York: Advertising spending will hit $145.3 billion this year, according to a TNS Media Intelligence forecast presented at the annual AdWatch conference in Manhattan this morning.
Speaking at the gathering of media buyers, sellers, ad agency executives and analysts in the Grand Hyatt New York, TNS president and CEO Steven Fredericks predicted that ad spending would be up 3.4 per cent over last year, although that's a fraction of the 9.8 per cent rate at which it grew in 2004.
He said he was "encouraged to see the advertising industry continue to show growth" despite this year's more modest increase.
The AdWatch: Outlook 2005 conference is co-presented by Advertising Age and TNS Media Intelligence.
Rosier first half
TNS predicts a rosier 4.1 per cent rise for the first half of the year than for the second half of 2005, expected to grow at a more sluggish 2.7 per cent rate. That kind of third-quarter slowdown is natural, said Fredericks, in a year following a Presidential election and a Summer Olympics.
The majority of media would see growth, with cable TV and Hispanic media more robust at 11.6 per cent and 10.5 per cent, respectively. Internet will be up 7.6 per cent -- a healthy number but not quite the double digit growth the medium saw the last two years. Magazines would be up 7.5 per cent and outdoor would rise 5.5 per cent. Newspapers were expected to see moderate 3.8 per cent growth, syndication a 3.3 per cent increase and network TV would grow 1.1 per cent.
Radio, B-to-B magazines down
Three media were expected to see ad spending drops in 2005, including radio, down a sliver of 0.1 per cent, business-to-business magazines down 0.9 per cent and spot TV down 6.4 per cent.
The significant downward forecast for spot TV was mostly attributed to the absence of local elections and competition from spot cable.