From 40 to 34 programmes in top 50 and from 50% channel share to close to 35%, Sun TV is in midst of shifting sand. Vijay TV has gained some share and Jaya TV could also see some resurgence as a political mouthpiece of ruling party.

Not that media planner and buyers would mind. After years of monopoly and virtually no room for negotiations, they would rather welcome this trend.

Let's look at some numbers to validate our observations. Chart 1 below indicates the number of programmes a channel has in top 50, generally considered a barometer of channel performance.

Chart 1:
Source: TAM, Market: Chennai, TG: 15-44 Yrs/M/F, Sec ABC, C&S Homes

Sun TV has 40 programmes in October, which have now shrinked to 34. The loss has been accounted for by KTV, movie channel from the Sun's stable, Raj TV and Vijay TV.

Just for the background, KTV was launched by Sun to act as a flanking channel and counter the threat posed by Star's Vijay TV.

How has this affected the channel shares? Has KTV eaten into Sun's share or has attracted fresh audiences? Chart 2 below has some pointers. For one, Sun has lost share, about 10% from the peak pre-KTV weeks. What is interesting to note is that shares of Sun and KTV move sharply in opposite directions almost all the time. This indicates the cannibalization between the two.

The current share structure suggests that about 35% of the share is with sun (though in the last week of our analysis, it jumped to over 40%). KTV has close to 20% share. Observers point out that this gives media planners an opportunity to combine the No 2 channel with No 3 and No 4 and generate as much deliveries for the plan as possible with the dominant Sun.

Vijay's gains though don't meet the expectations of media watches. A travel down the streets of Chennai would reflect the expectation levels. Large Billboards literally cover the city. In programming, Vijay has attempted to clone the 'Sun feel' almost genre-by-genre. To improve content, it has handed out huge sums to actresses 'just-past-their-prime'. Surely they would have expected more than just a few programmes in top 50.

To add to dynamics, Jaya TV could well be the dark horse riding on the wave of political patronage.

It seems that these changes are but the sign of times where market leaders have to battle hard with great content and aggressive marketing. Or else nimbler followers may pose a real threat. Is someone listening?