The Indian team's dismal performance against first Holland and then Australia had all advertisers who had decided to get onto the World Cup worried. Effigies were being burnt and Kaif's house in Allahbad was blackened. Pledges were being taken to never touch brands being endorsed by Indian cricketeers. Its been a turnaround since then with many Indians feeling that we have won the World Cup after our emphatic win against Pakistan.

The following analysis takes a look at the performance of the first two weeks of the tournament. The objectives of the exercise are to,

1) Validate our forecasts regarding the World Cup
· is it living up to our expectations?
· how is it affecting other programming?
2) How to utilize the remaining matches to best advantage?

The analysis parameters are,

Time Period : 26th Jan - 22nd Feb
· two weeks prior to tournament
· two weeks during the tournamnet
Target Audience
· 15 - 34 yr., SEC AB, Male/Female, C&S households
Source : TAM

Following are the answers to the questions that we posed to ourselves!

Q. How has the World Cup performed till now?

Set Max emerges as the clear leader (more and better matches compared to Sony). The impact of 'Taking Guard', 'Follow Through', (Star Sports' attempt to put a foot into the tournament) and other match repeat telecasts on ESPN/Star Sports is negligible.

India matches are clearly leading on individual match performances, but other key matches are also doing well. India matches against weak teams are doing equally well.

Looking at the audience movements on key matches, although most matches are day Matches on weekdays, the 1st half has performed as well as the second half and has shown greater consistency in reach. The match has peaked however in the last 10 overs of the 2nd half except in one-sided match endings (more people tuning in to catch the match outcome?) Quite a few matches have, however, ended before the scheduled 50 overs of the 2nd half. Matches beginning at 1800 hrs have low reach levels towards the end. India matches as expected are doing better than non-India matches. Though, performance of strong non-India matches also good. Similar if not better outcomes are to be expected during the Super Sixes. India matches against weak teams doing as well as those against strong teams (more a factor of how the match is going). Again, similar expectations in the Super Sixes.

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So, did the viewers watch most of the match or did they tune in only occasionally? Comparison of the match reach calculated with reach definitions of 1 min+ and 15 (consecutive) min+ showed that there were only around 10% casual viewers for all matches (India & non-India).

Non cricket programming normally shows atleast a 20% drop in viewership from the program to the commercial break. In the case of the World Cup the corresponding drop is only around 2% for India matches & around 5% for non-India matches.

Q. What impact has the World Cup had on other programming?

A look at the Top Program Listings shows that the top programs on Star Plus retain their hold on the Indian masses. Sony has been affected somewhat. Zee TV has been the worst hit. Set Max has made an entry with World Cup matches and related coverage.

The sports genre channel share has gone up to the levels of the mass entertainment channel genre. These shares have primarily come from the mass entertainment channels and from the Hindi movie genre.

Non-cricket advertisers can however breathe easy! The absolute viewership of different genres (quantified by Timespent = Reach in 000's x Average Hours per Viewer) remains more or less untouched. Their channel shares have gone down, because the total timespent by television viewers has already increased by 40%, all on account of the World Cup. (It had doubled during World Cup 99).

Q. What are the activity levels of different brands?

Investment levels on World Cup 2003 are much higher than the investment levels seen on World Cup 1999. The top spenders in the first two weeks were,

Week 1 & 2 accounted for 43% of the total tournament (23 matches - 19 played, 2 walkovers, 2 deferred live). These weeks should therefore account for 33% of the total brand budgets on the tournament. The spend levels of all 61 brands active till now indicate that brands with budgets of Rs 1.5 crs and above would gain decent visibility on the Cup.

To conclude:

1) The World Cup is living up to our expectations. We see that total viewership has increased by about 40%, this increase can be directly attributed to the increase in sports viewing. Therefore, brands already on the World Cup are definitely benefiting from it

2) It is not affecting the viewership of other programming genres, except in the case of Hindi movies. Niche Channels have relatively stable viewership even during the World Cup. Star Plus still performs well. Sony and Zee suffer the most in the mass genre

3) To utilize the remaining matches to best advantage,

Multi-brand companies should revisit the budget allocations across brands
- prioritize amongst portfolio, to ensure that the key brands have a budget of atleast Rs. 1.5 crs on the Cup
- even if it means taking some brands off the Cup

From the Super Six stage onwards all matches will be important. All India matches should be treated equally. Criticality of matches (how they affect India) will also affect viewership. Judicious spot placement can yield better returns on investment. Ideally,
- 60% of spots should be spread across the 1st innings
- 30-35% should be between 30th-40th overs of the 2nd innings
- balance should be in the last 5-10 overs

Like always the vagaries of nature (read the Indian team's performance) could alter the above predictions. It will be interesting to know, if Kaif's house has been white-washed now, given his excellent performance, and, if all brands with cricketeers as endorsers are having a 'field day' in the market place.

Share your feedback or send your queries to Sanchayeeta Bhattacharya at:
sanchayeeta.bhattacharya@lowemail.com

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