The first evidence of the battle for eyeballs just played out before us even before the first ball was bowled. The toss had just happened, the fun-n-frolic was being captured by the camera, while a bunch of 20-somethings were just settling down to experience the IPL spectacle, in the viewing gallery at Otters Club. At 8 pm or so, an old couple walked in, made themselves comfortable in the first row, asked for the remote and switched to ‘Banu Main Teri Dulhan’.

Everyone’s jaw dropped with several protests of “But aunty … ? ”, and the youngsters tried to reason that the match was the most important thing happening at the moment. And aunty retorted, “But the matches will go on for a few days, isn’t it? So, you guys can always watch it another day.”

The youngsters objected, “But aunty, it’s the first day and it’s so exciting. In three hours, everything will be over!”

Pat came the reply, “But this serial will be over in just half an hour!”

A lot has been written and said about IPL. But all that can only be a conjecture until the first viewership numbers are generated. Most opinions are based on subjective factors such as the possible lack of national fervor in the Tournament, the fatigue of 44 consecutive days of cricket, etc.

However, this feature is based on an in-depth analysis of pre-T20 ratings vis-à-vis ratings of various channels during the Tournament. And it attempts to predict the effect of IPL on other channels across various TGs, based on the last such a tournament – the T20 World Cup that India won in mid-September 2007 in South Africa.

The match timings in the T20 World Cup were very similar to the time of the IPL matches, and hence, this is expected to reduce the margin of error in judgment.

Methodology

It’s obvious that any such major championship is certainly going to affect channel shares, even though the total viewership pie expands. Hence, the most relevant comparison would be that of TVRs before and during the T20 World Cup, separately for India matches and non-matches, separately for Weekdays and Weekends, and of course, separately for the final.

So, the TVRs for every set of matches, as described above, have been compared to an equivalent (similar time slots, same number of days, etc), set of programmes just prior to the World Cup. The time slot for the analysis has been maintained as 9.30 pm to 12.30 am (which is the best possible overlap with prime time across channels).

And this analysis has been done for four different target groups:

TG 1: Males, 15-44, SEC AB.
TG 2: Females, 15 years-plus, SEC ABC
TG 3: Men & Women, 15-44 years, SEC ABC
TG 4: Boys and Girls, 4-14 years, SEC ABC

The graphs show the most relevant (likely to be affected) set of channels for each TG. So, to begin with, let’s take a look at the various comparisons.

“Source for all the analysis is TAM”

- For India matches played on weekdays (three such days), the TVRs of Hindi news channels declined by more than 20 per cent, but the rating of NDTV 24x7 improved, in this TG. However, on the weekend (one particular day), the TVRs improved for India matches for almost all channels by 18-67 per cent

- For non-India matches on weekdays (four such days), the pattern is similar to that of the India matches on weekdays – Hindi news channels show a decline once again while NDTV 24x7 shows a spurt. But on a weekend match (one such day only), the results are mixed – some channels rise whereas some decline

- India matches played on weekdays (three such days) result in a substantial decline for Hindi GECs and Hindi movie channels in this TG – the decline ranges from 24 per cent to 49 per cent. Even the leading Southern channels are adversely affected. And the story remains the same on the weekend (one such day only). In fact, the T20 onslaught becomes more severe for the Hindi GECs

- For non-India matches on weekdays (four such days), the decline is understandably less severe (in fact, Zee even shows a growth of 3 per cent), but on the weekend, even a non-India match affects the Hindi GECs and movie channels. However, Sun TV and Udaya TV, see a reverse pattern with increase in TVRs (perhaps a function of weekend programming on that day itself)

- For India matches played on weekdays (three such days), Hindi GECs, Hindi movie channels and Hindi news channels, all get significantly affected (ranging from 15 per cent to 54 per cent). Star Movies also gets affected, but NDTV 24x7 gains TVRs once again even in this TG. The decline story applies to all channels on the weekend

- For non-India matches on weekdays, the decline is not as much as that on the India match days, as expected, with NDTV 24x7 being the only exception once again, with a similar story on weekends

- The six non-India matches that were played on six weekdays between 5.30 pm and 8.30 pm led to positive and negative changes in the TVRs of kids’ channels in the kids TG. Pogo, Nick and Disney suffered, while Hungama, Cartoon Network and Jetix increased their TVRs

- And the two non-India matches on weekends showed a more definitive declining trend amongst the more established kids’ channels in that TG

• Celebrity patronage
  
• ome turf, therefore, greater involvement
  
• The media support as well as the advertising blitzkrieg for the event as a whole and the teams
  
• Advertiser brands’ support
  
• The consequent entertainment rub-off
  
• The timing of the matches
  
• The minimal duration of the ad breaks (Everyone’s already talking about the Vodafone stamps ad with the little girl and the iconic pug)
  
• The summer holiday season, which is known to be a dampener for regular programming

• Lack of a national spirit – filtering down to only local support from respective cities for the teams
  
• The drudgery of watching 59 matches in 44 consecutive days
  
• Advertising clutter
  
• The counter strategies planned by various channels to guard their own turf – what with ‘Paanchvi Paas’ slated for launch on Friday, April 25, on Star Plus – an SRK versus SRK showdown?

Table of estimated change in viewership
(as compared to pre-IPL same days, in the match time slot)

TG 1: Males, 15-44, SEC AB
Channel type: News