A Media Planners Guide to Look Through the CAS Maze
The Media Scene in India is evolving very fast. The recent past has witnessed many changes but the most talked of is CAS. If and when it finally happens, it will dramatically change television viewing the way we know it today. Its impact will be felt on viewership, channel distribution and on revenues as well. The impact on media planning therefore is undeniable.

A lot has been and continues to be said about CAS more in the domain of 'General Knowledge'. In this article, the intent is clearly to put forth a framework for analyzing the current media-channels mix and arrive at directions for plans in the CAS-era.

The framework being discussed has evolved out of the work being done at Initiative Media. The framework proposes to study the effect of CAS at three levels viz; Category Level, Brand Level and Channels Mix Level and has been aptly coined as the CBC Framework (Category-Brand-Channel Framework).

General Framework

The Framework proposes to present the data in a graphical format for easy interpretation and decision-making. At various levels - Category, Brand, Channel Mix Level the elements are categorized into 4-quadrants. These quadrants are configured on the basis of the extent of exposure of the category/ brand in the CAS Metros and the skew of the target audience to the higher 3ECs. The exposure can be used in terms of sales of the category; brand or the GRP deliveries of the channel. The resultant quadrants can be analyzed as under:

The Framework attempts to isolate the 'critical' components of the model. The model will get illustrated further in the article.

Category Level

Marketers need to understand the impact that CAS will have on various categories. Basis the distribution of sales and the profile of the users of the category, categories will have varying vulnerability to the CAS event. For example; a category that has its sales concentrated in the meters is likely to be impacted more than one whose sales are spread across India. Also, a category that is consumed more by the higher S ECs is Iikely to be affected more.

The Framework proposes to present the data in a graphical format for easy interpretation and decision-making. At various levels - Category, Brand, Channel Mix Level the elements are categorized into 4-quadrants. These quadrants are configured on the basis of the extent of exposure of the category/ brand in the CAS Metros and the skew of the target audience to the higher 3ECs. The exposure can be used in terms of sales of the category; brand or the GRP deliveries of the channel. The resultant quadrants can be analyzed as under

The framework given above captures this characteristic of the categories in a 3-D graph. The X-axis categorizes the categories as Mass or ISiche while the Y-axis orders them in extent of their presence in the CAS Metros. The size of the bubble indicates the size of the category.
This framework clearly classifies the categories into 4 quadrants. The Mass-Mass Categories (Moped. B&W TV, Music System, etc) will be least affected while the Niche-CAS Categories (Camera, Automobiles, Washing Machines, etc) have the most to worry. The Marketers/ Ranners need to develop these graphs to understand the extent of vulnerability of their categories to CAS.

Brand Level

The above is not to say that if your category falls in the Mass-Mass quadrant you can rest in peace. In the same framework the category of interest needs to be plotted brand wise, A Brand-wise plot will show the extent of effect that is possible at the brand level within the category. An example of Color TV category is shown below:

Though, Color TV as a category was positioned in the Mass-C AS Quadrant in the earlier graph, the individual brands have different positions in the g r id,
Again, the Mass-Mass brands do not have much cause for concern but the Niche-CAS and Mass-CAS Brands would have to do further analysis to combat the CAS effect. The Mass-Niche Brands top would be impacted but the degree of impact would not be very large in the scheme of their total brand spread.

Channel Level

A Brand that is in the critical quadrant may still be safe from the CAS effect if the Channel Mix is skewed more to the FTA channels and vice-versa. Hence, in this stage, basis the TV Channel Ran of the brand under consideration plot the TV Channels in the 4-Quadrant Graph. The X-axis represents the degree of delivery of the channel that conies from the CAS Metros. The Y-axis represents the share of the channel in the total delivery, not the plan. The size of the bubble represents the extent of loss in delivery that will happen post-CAS. See example of a service category brand shown below,
The framework allows a planner to clearly identify the likely cause and extent of the losses; the loss has been estimated by applying loss factors to the present deliveries of each channel. The channels in the plan that need to be adjusted post-CAS are clearly identified. In the above example it is obvious that Star Plus is the highest contributor to the probable Reach Loss.

The Solution

To make up for the lost reach the brand in question would have the following three alternatives:

1. Boost spends in the existing pay-channels to generate additional reach that would compensate for the estimated loss. This may not be the best way as it will generate a lot of c-wr-spill in the Non-CAS Markets,

2. Supplement the current channels by additional spends in existing/ new FTA channels. This seems to be the best possible way i.e., if 'matching' supplement channels are available in the context of the Genre and TG for the brand

3. Supplement the TV Channels with other media such as Press. Radio. Outdoor, Depending upon the extent of estimated damage and the required profile for the brand, this may turn out top be a very irnportant option. To look for an alternative channel, the Channel Map below plots the available channels in the proper perspective.
The choice of the substitute/ supplement channel will depend on

a) The extent of delivery of the channel for the brand TG
(Affinity of the Channel on X-axis)

b) The degree of delivery of the channel in the CAS Metros
(On the Y-axis).
The size of the bubble represents the relative volume of delivery amongst the channels

The Channels for the TG of the service category brand discussed earlier are plotted above, In trying to find a supplement for Star Plus, the following key points can be made:

1. With the implementation of CAS, the size of the Pay-Channel bubbles will shrink

2.The size of the FTA channels will increase resulting in larger bubbles than the ones shown above. The extent of increase is indeterminable at present.

3. The addition of viewers to the FTAs wilI largely be from the CAS-Metros and will tend to skew the channels to the Higher SECs in the short run, This will propel the FTA Channels towards the North-East Quadrant in the Graph above. This movement will make these channels better suited to the TG both in terms of deliveries and profile.
Therefore, the media implications from the CBC Framework for the Service Category Brand being discussed are:

1L There is critical need for adapting the existing plans to C AS Scenario, as a status quo could lead to a loss in deliveries as high as 50% with i n the CAS Metros.

2 L Star PI us is the most critical channel whose deliveries have to be compensated for. Not that the others do not have to be considered.

The direction for media planning basis the Channel Map is as under:

1. Use FTA News Channels as they offer a good TG fit and are also likely to increase in deliveries. This is possible if the brand plan allows for replacing a General Entertainment Channel like Star PI us with a News Channel like Aaj Tak, etc

2. Keep a close watch over the FTA General Entertainment Channels and use them if they become in delivering the brand profile

3. Possibly, use a geographically segmented approach to reaching the TG; The FTA Bengali channels clearly pro vide this opportunity. Similarly, check for such options in the other CAS Markets too.

4. Investigate the option of using Press and Outdoor besides Television in the media mix strategy. Do a reach and cost analysis of Press and compare these with the TV Channel alternatives available for this decision.

Thus the CBC Framework presents an objective and illustrative Method to analyze and adjust the channel deliveries in the event of CAS. It allows identification and quantification of the vulnerable elements in the plan and provides directions to compensate for the loss.

We hope this CBC Framework assists the Media Planning Fraternity in objectively seeing through the CAS-maze and arrive at workable options post-CAS if C AS happens!!