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| July 4, 2005 |
Cable & Satellite Homes- the debate on the
overall Universe “Big numbers” pleases many! What is the reality? |
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The recently released NRS 2005 has generated one important debate (amongst many other controversies) - the total estimation of Cable and Satellite homes in India.
Media Research Users Council (MRUC) and their research partner Hansa Research Group have been inundated with queries from clients. We have the following highlights to share, for the benefit of all .
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Note : Census 2001 reported North Eastern states and J&K, which are excluded in the above analysis.
(See Annexure for detailed Statewise break ups of the above data) |
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Census 2001 estimates the TV Households close to 60 Mn, which is 32% of all Households.
This has been projected at about 41% in IRS '05, whereas NRS '05 estimates the TV penetration to be 51% of all homes in India. |
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The total number of installed TV homes as per IRS ‘05 is 83 Mn (as of June 2004). This denotes a penetration of 41% of all homes in Urban + Rural India estimated at 83 Mn homes. And represents a growth of about 9% in penetration over Census 2001 (3 ½ years prior). |
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| NRS '05 pegs the TV installed base at 108 Mn homes, which means a 51% penetration (on a base of 213 Mn total estimated homes). Or 82% more TV homes got added to the Universe in the last 4 years, which is a very large number to deal with. |
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Household Growth rates from Census 2001(as compared to 1991) |
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| An analysis of State wise growth in homes indicates that growth estimations of NRS '05 are way above the All India average decadal growth rate of 25.8 % as reported by Census 2001. This means that at an All India level, the annual growth rate is about 2.3% (Cumulative Annual Growth Rate). |
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Detailed Statewise analyses was undertaken at the Urban & Rural break up level, and the tables below highlight the Zones/States where the NRS '05 estimations seems to be high/very high . (as compared to the growth rates reported by Census 2001 at the respective State level) |
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Zone Wise Growth of TV Homes ( Since Census 2001) |
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IRS '05 Growth
(2001 to 2004)
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NRS "05 Growth
(2001 to 2005)
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Mn |
% |
Mn |
% |
East |
4.5 |
59 |
9.4 |
124 |
North |
5.3 |
29 |
11.7 |
65 |
South |
8.8 |
50 |
17.0 |
98 |
West |
5.0 |
30 |
10.6 |
65 |
All India |
23.5 |
39 |
48.7 |
82 |
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As per IRS '05 the TV homes have grown by about 39% in the last 3 years (2001 – 2004). NRS '05 estimates the growth to be about 82% in the last 4 years (2001 – 2005). |
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The table below highlights the markets where disproportionate growth rates reported in NRS ‘05 are evident. |
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Growth of TV Homes - IRS 2005 and NRS 2005 |
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IRS 2005 |
NRS 2005 |
State |
Total HHs (Mn) |
% HHs Growth over 2001 Census |
TV HHs (Mn) |
Total HHs (Mn) |
% HHs Growth over 2001 Census |
TV HHs (Mn) |
Andhra Pradesh |
17.9 |
6 |
8.1 |
19.8 |
17 |
12.6 |
Assam |
5.3 |
8 |
1.5 |
6.9 |
39 |
2.8 |
Bihar |
15.5 |
10.7 |
2.4 |
15.7 |
12 |
3.7 |
Chhattisgarh |
4.4 |
7 |
1.3 |
4.5 |
7 |
1.8 |
Delhi |
2.9 |
14 |
2.4 |
3.0 |
18 |
2.7 |
Gujarat |
10.5 |
9 |
4.7 |
11.0 |
14 |
6.1 |
Haryana |
3.9 |
10 |
2.5 |
4.3 |
23 |
3.0 |
Jharkhand |
5.3 |
8 |
1.3 |
5.3 |
9 |
1.7 |
Karnataka |
11.0 |
8 |
5.7 |
11.6 |
13 |
6.8 |
Kerala |
7.0 |
6 |
4.0 |
7.3 |
10 |
4.4 |
Madhya Pradesh |
11.9 |
9 |
4.0 |
12.2 |
11 |
5.5 |
Maharashtra + Goa |
20.8 |
7 |
11.3 |
22.1 |
14 |
13.7 |
Orissa |
8.6 |
9 |
2.0 |
8.7 |
11 |
3.0 |
Punjab/HP/Chandigarh |
6.1 |
7 |
4.5 |
6.4 |
12 |
4.9 |
Rajasthan |
10.1 |
8 |
3.4 |
10.3 |
11 |
4.8 |
Tamil Nadu + Pondicherry |
15.0 |
4 |
8.3 |
16.1 |
12 |
10.6 |
Uttar Pradesh |
27.5 |
7 |
8.2 |
28.5 |
10 |
11.2 |
Uttaranchal |
1.7 |
6 |
1.1 |
2.1 |
33 |
1.5 |
West Bengal |
16.9 |
8 |
6.1 |
17.5 |
12 |
7.5 |
Total |
202.2 |
8 |
82.9 |
213.1 |
13 |
108.2 |
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States where projections are higher than expected in NRS ‘05
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These States are: A.P, Assam, Gujarat, Haryana, Karnataka, Kerala, Maharashtra, Punjab/HP/Chandigarh, TN & Uttranchal. |
These account for 50% and 61% of the total household and TV households base respectively in NRS '05. |
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As per our considered estimation, about 14-15 Mn TV homes have been over-estimated by NRS '05.
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The universe estimate of TV owning homes should be about 90-93 Mn (IRS estimates by end 2005) |
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Estimation of C& S Homes |
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As a by product of the over-estimation of households and TV households in some of the States, the C&S estimations have also been impacted in NRS '05.
Surprisingly, the NRS '05 estimates the total C&S homes base itself at 61 Mn, a million more than the overall installed TV base in India 4 years ago, as compared to Census 2000.
The important dimension is that the NRS shows that 16.3 Mn more homes got C&S connection during the last 2 years, which is nearly the same number as new TV owning homes in the last 2 years. This seems very inexplicable. |
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Source |
Total Homes (Mn) |
TV Homes (Mn) |
C&S Homes (Mn) |
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NRS '03 |
210.5 |
91.5 |
44.7 |
NRS '05 |
213.1 |
108.2 |
61.0 |
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Change (Mn) |
2.6 |
16.7 |
16.3 |
Change (%) |
1.2 |
15.4 |
26.7 |
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As a related fact, these over estimations of households by NRS ‘05 will also result in over projection of many of the other variables like penetration of durables/FMCGs as well as household demographic variables like SEC, no. of working members, family structure etc. |
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Summary
• NRS '05 has an overestimation of households by about 6%, TV homes by 14-15 Mn
• This has also impacted the estimation of C&S Homes by about 22% more
• Assuming a reasonable level of growth in TV & C&S penetration levels across States, IRS estimates the total Universe of installed TV base to be as follows by the end of 2005
• TV Homes : 90 – 94 Mn
• C&S Homes : 46 – 50 Mn
NRS data courtesy : One of the common subscribers of IRS'05 & NRS'05.
Members are requested to contact mruc@vsnl.com for further clarifications. We welcome your feedback and suggestions for further improving our prestigious brand Indian Readership Survey (IRS). Thank you. |
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Or please contact us at 022-2498 3416 for further in details on the above topic. |
Annexure 1 |
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Growth in Homes % |
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IRS '05 |
NRS '05 |
State |
% HHs Growth over 2001 Census |
% HHs growth over 2001 Census |
NRS '05 |
Estimates |
Higher by % |
Andhra Pradesh |
6 |
17 |
11 |
Assam |
8 |
39 |
31 |
Bihar |
11 |
12 |
2 |
Chhattisgarh |
7 |
7 |
0 |
Delhi |
14 |
18 |
4 |
Gujarat |
9 |
14 |
5 |
Haryana |
10 |
23 |
12 |
Jharkhand |
8 |
9 |
1 |
Karnataka |
8 |
13 |
5 |
Kerala |
6 |
10 |
5 |
Madhya Pradesh |
9 |
11 |
3 |
Maharashtra + Goa |
7 |
14 |
7 |
Orissa |
9 |
11 |
2 |
Punjab/HP/Chandigarh |
7 |
12 |
4 |
Rajasthan |
8 |
11 |
2 |
TN + Pondicherry |
4 |
12 |
8 |
Uttar Pradesh |
7 |
10 |
4 |
Uttaranchal |
6 |
33 |
27 |
West Bengal |
8 |
12 |
4 |
% Growth over Census 2001 |
8 |
13 |
6 |
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Annexure 2 |
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Comparison of TV Homes - Census 2001, IRS 2005 and NRS 2005 |
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Census 2001 |
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IRS 2005 |
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NRS 2005 |
State |
Total HHs (Mn) |
TV HHs (Mn) |
% TV HHs |
|
Total HHs (Mn) |
TV HHs (Mn) |
% TV HHs |
C&S HHs (Mn) |
% C&S HHs (on TV Base) |
|
Total HHs (Mn) |
TV HHs (Mn) |
% TV HHs |
C&S HHs (Mn) |
% C&S HHs (on TV Base) |
|
(A) |
(B) |
© |
|
(D) |
(E) |
(H) |
(J) |
(K) |
|
(L) |
(N) |
|
(Q) |
® |
Andhra Pradesh |
16.8 |
5.3 |
31 |
|
17.9 |
8.1 |
45 |
7.1 |
88 |
|
19.8 |
12.6 |
64 |
11.5 |
91 |
Assam |
4.9 |
0.9 |
18 |
|
5.3 |
1.5 |
29 |
0.3 |
20 |
|
6.9 |
2.8 |
41 |
0.7 |
27 |
Bihar |
14.0 |
1.3 |
9 |
|
15.5 |
2.4 |
15 |
0.5 |
22 |
|
15.7 |
3.7 |
24 |
0.8 |
22 |
Chhattisgarh |
4.1 |
0.9 |
22 |
|
4.4 |
1.3 |
29 |
0.4 |
30 |
|
4.5 |
1.8 |
41 |
0.7 |
38 |
Delhi |
2.6 |
1.9 |
75 |
|
2.9 |
2.4 |
84 |
1.9 |
76 |
|
3.0 |
2.7 |
91 |
2.2 |
82 |
Gujarat |
9.6 |
3.7 |
39 |
|
10.5 |
4.7 |
45 |
2.4 |
51 |
|
11.0 |
6.1 |
55 |
3.5 |
59 |
Haryana |
3.5 |
1.9 |
53 |
|
3.9 |
2.5 |
63 |
1.0 |
39 |
|
4.3 |
3.0 |
70 |
1.7 |
57 |
Jharkhand |
4.9 |
0.8 |
17 |
|
5.3 |
1.3 |
25 |
0.6 |
43 |
|
5.3 |
1.7 |
32 |
0.8 |
50 |
Karnataka |
10.2 |
3.8 |
37 |
|
11.0 |
5.7 |
52 |
4.4 |
78 |
|
11.6 |
6.8 |
59 |
5.4 |
79 |
Kerala |
6.6 |
2.6 |
39 |
|
7.0 |
4.0 |
57 |
2.1 |
53 |
|
7.3 |
4.4 |
60 |
2.6 |
60 |
Madhya Pradesh |
10.9 |
3.2 |
30 |
|
11.9 |
4.0 |
34 |
1.5 |
37 |
|
12.2 |
5.5 |
45 |
2.1 |
37 |
Maharashtra + Goa |
19.3 |
8.6 |
44 |
|
20.8 |
11.3 |
55 |
5.6 |
49 |
|
22.1 |
13.7 |
62 |
6.9 |
50 |
Orissa |
7.9 |
1.2 |
15 |
|
8.6 |
2.0 |
23 |
0.6 |
31 |
|
8.7 |
3.0 |
34 |
1.1 |
38 |
Punjab/HP/Chandigarh |
5.7 |
3.7 |
65 |
|
6.1 |
4.5 |
73 |
1.5 |
34 |
|
6.4 |
4.9 |
78 |
2.2 |
44 |
Rajasthan |
9.3 |
2.6 |
28 |
|
10.1 |
3.4 |
33 |
1.1 |
32 |
|
10.3 |
4.8 |
46 |
1.8 |
37 |
Tamil Nadu + Pondicherry |
14.4 |
5.7 |
40 |
|
15.0 |
8.3 |
56 |
6.9 |
83 |
|
16.1 |
10.6 |
66 |
9.3 |
88 |
Uttar Pradesh |
25.8 |
6.4 |
25 |
|
27.5 |
8.2 |
30 |
1.9 |
23 |
|
28.5 |
11.2 |
39 |
3.2 |
29 |
Uttaranchal |
1.6 |
0.7 |
43 |
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1.7 |
1.1 |
66 |
0.3 |
24 |
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2.1 |
1.5 |
69 |
0.6 |
43 |
West Bengal |
15.7 |
4.2 |
27 |
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16.9 |
6.1 |
36 |
3.0 |
49 |
|
17.5 |
7.5 |
43 |
3.7 |
49 |
Total * |
188.0 |
59.4 |
32 |
|
202.2 |
82.9 |
41 |
43.1 |
52 |
|
213.1 |
108.2 |
51 |
61.0 |
56 |
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* Excludes North Eastern States/J&K reported by Census 2001. |
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| Archive |
 Household
Potential Index(HPI) from IRS- July 13, 05
THE TV SPORT MAP IN 2004- June 14, 05
Asia Pacific C&S Markets 2005- Apr 28, 05
Consumer Spending Poll- Nov 08, 04
M- SPECTRA : MADISON’S MULTI-MEDIA REACH FREQUENCY ESTIMATOR-
Oct 04, 04
Effective Return on Cricket Ground Signage- Aug 18, 04
Media effect and its measurement in Rural India- Aug 11, 04
Euro 2004 – Performance Analysis- Jul 22, 04
Business Media Opportunities in India- Jul 10, 04
Election 2004: Monitoring of TV Coverage - Jun 26, 04
Election 2004 A Study by MAXUS - May 29, 04
SMS users are open to brand marketing - April 22, 04
Celebrity Endorsements Inside Out: A CyberMedia Study - April
17, 04
Understanding women Study by MCI - March 20, 04
Consultation Note on Issues relating to Broadcasting and Cable
Services -
Jan 01,
04
SMS Selling Made Smarter?!- Dec 04, 03
ICCO World report October 2003- Nov 20, 03
DTH Studyby Initiative media- sep 23, 03
IRS Study- sep 17, 03
CyberMedia Research - July 17, 03
Media Financial Wellbeing - A Study by ATG - June 06, 03
The "Surer" way of consumer contact -May 15 03
TOWN & COUNTRY - June 24 02
All
in All!
Mudra
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