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| Industry
Omnibus
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In
our business of media and advertising timely information sharing
is knowledge creation. Industry Omnibus is an endeavor to
showcase industry best practices through industry wide research,
case studies, industry newsletters and other relevant information
with exchange4media subscribers. Industry Omnibus further
meets the expectations of our industry, which has made exchange4media
an industry resource. |
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Media
forecast for upcoming Cricket series |
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| There
is an action-packed line-up of cricket events coming up. And with
India’s good performance in the just concluded India-Sri Lanka
ODI series, cricket is back in reckoning for the audience and hence
the media fraternity. |
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With
cricket, it is difficult to separate passion from rational investment
decisions – not just among clients but also media planners.
Therefore, before the frenzy grips the country, it makes sense to
rationally evaluate the big upcoming cricket events. |
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The
excitement and tightness of ODIs completely differentiate them from
a Test. Naturally, ODIs get the eyeballs and also the biggest share
of the cricket wallet. We will evaluate the following ODI series
in Male TG (15 yrs +, SEC ABC, CS): |
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| This
analysis attempts to estimate what these tournaments would deliver
in terms of TVR’s in the Male TG. Secondly, based on current
channel prices from different genres, we have tried to put a logical
price for these matches. |
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Asia Cup 2006
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Group |
Teams |
| A |
Sri
Lanka, Bangladesh and UAE |
| B |
India,
Pakistan and Oman |
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This
makes a total of 13 matches involving six teams with varied international
rankings. The tournament structure has been first evaluated on the
basis of number of quality matches that the series offers. The number
of quality matches is decided by grades assigned to competing teams.
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Non-India A: Pakistan Vs. Sri Lanka
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Non-India C: UAE Vs Bangladesh
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| Similarly
for India:
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India A: India Vs Pakistan
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1. The tournament on applying match grades:
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would be at least three high power India matches where India plays
against either Pakistan or Sri Lanka, even if India does not play
the finals. However, the TVRs from these three matches would be
diluted by the number of non-India matches (7 in total, out of which
6 are non-productive that involve at least one weak team). The tournament
composition is |
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| Match
Grade |
No. |
| Finals
(Ind A OR NON IND A) |
1 |
| INDIA
A |
3 |
| INDIA
B |
2 |
| A |
1 |
| B |
5 |
| C |
1 |
| TOTAL: |
13 |
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| 2.
The issue of DD simulcast |
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The recent I&B ministry ruling that cricket
is of national importance gives rise to the issue of simulcast
of all cricket events on DD. The Satellite Channel
Partner of the event loses some TVRs to DD and hence the investment
on the Satellite channel needs to be further rationalized.
Historical data show that DD takes an average of 25%
share from the Satellite channel.
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| However,
Ten Sports which has had connectivity problems in the past, has
lost about 35-40% share to DD.
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| 3.
India ranking in Pool B |
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| Matches
in the 2nd stage of the tournament are determined by the pool rankings
achieved in the initial stage. Rankings for pool A are almost certain
with Sri Lanka being 1st (A1) and Bangladesh coming 2nd (A2). |
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| The
uncertainty is in Group B, where two good teams -- India and Pakistan
-- compete. India can be B1 and also B2 depending on the match dynamics.
Since even numbers of teams (6), with even number of matches (12+
Final) are competing in the Cup, the outcomes will not differ drastically
in both scenarios (whether India is B1 or B2). |
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| 4.
Male Viewership Dynamics |
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| These
factors are: |
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| The
Final Outcome (TVR) – Asia Cup 2006 |
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The
estimated Tournament TVR for ESPN + Star Sports (after factoring in
the given variables) = 4.0 to 4.2 |
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two key assumptions at this stage are: |
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| Arriving
at the ‘Right’ Cost: |
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benchmarks are in the male audience (CPRPs) for an outlay of Rs
1.5 crore approximately. For all channels where the buying is CPRP
led, the spectrum is: |
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Lead
Hindi
CPRP- Rs 18000
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Hindi
Movie
CPRP-5000
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In
order to compare like to like, it is essential to remember that
Indian cricket is most similar to a Hindi Lead
in that it is mass and leads to instant reach build-up.
Despite trying to rationalize cricket investment, it is inevitable
that cricket will demand a certain premium. |
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| The
premium will be highest in the case of India-Pakistan
and World Cup and will be on the higher side for
established tournaments like Asia Cup and ICC
Trophy.
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Though
it is accepted that good cricket will come at a
premium, we still need to arrive at an acceptable band where the
cricket investment is worthwhile. In order to deal with the same,
we will look at various scenarios at Discrete Premium percentages.
These will result in corresponding CPRPs and Effective Rate which
will also give us the outlay’s at each level of premium. |
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| In
scenario 1, we are paying a 10% premium over Hindi lead option –
hence, a CPRP of Rs 20,000, resulting in an average ER of Rs 82,000
/ 10s (for an average TVR of 4.2). |
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| Asia
Cup is an established tournament, which will definitely add good salience
to a media plan. Mitigated by weak matches, the average tournament
TVR would not cross 4.2. However, the 5 good matches are sure firecrackers.
It is a steal deal in Scenario 1 (ER = Rs 82,000 / 10s). |
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| Given
our evaluation, the tournament does not deserve a premium beyond 25-30%.
The resulting 10s ER would be approximately Rs 95,000-100,000. |
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| Comparing
with India-Pakistan series |
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| India-Pakistan
ODI series is a 5-match affair happening in Pakistan in January-February
nest year, preceding the Asia Cup. The ODI series is similar to the
recently concluded India-Sri Lanka ODI in India in which excitement
levels were high throughout as two good teams were playing. This series
fetched an Average TVR of 5.7 and 4.7 respectively on DD Sports and
DD1. Thus, it gave an Average Series TVR of 10.4. |
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| The
India-Pakistan ODIs will fare better with Pakistan as the opposing
side. It will have at least 2 D/N matches. The Average Series
TVRs on Ten Sports, keeping in mind low connectivity will, be in the
range of 11.5 to 11.7. |
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This
difference in Average TVR between Asia Cup and India-Pakistan ODI
series is primarily because of weak matches more than averaging
the good matches’ performance in Asia Cup, thereby lowering
the Average TVR for Asia Cup as against all good matches in the
India-Pakistan ODI series. |
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| The
same gets reflected in the rates that are higher at all Premium levels. |
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| Clearly
apples alone cannot be bought at the rate of apples and oranges together. |
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| Happy
reading. |
| From:
OMS Team |
| (For
any clarifications, please write to s.rastogi@omsindia.com) |
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| Archive |
Regulating For Growth- December 05, 05
Trends in Mumbai print battle- October 29, 05
C & S Homes: The big debate- September 14, 05
Household Potential Index(HPI) from IRS- July 13, 05
THE TV SPORT MAP IN 2004- June 14, 05
Asia Pacific C&S Markets 2005- Apr 28, 05
Consumer Spending Poll- Nov 08, 04
M- SPECTRA : MADISON’S MULTI-MEDIA REACH FREQUENCY ESTIMATOR-
Oct 04, 04
Effective Return on Cricket Ground Signage- Aug 18, 04
Media effect and its measurement in Rural India- Aug 11, 04
Euro 2004 – Performance Analysis- Jul 22, 04
Business Media Opportunities in India- Jul 10, 04
Election 2004: Monitoring of TV Coverage - Jun 26, 04
Election 2004 A Study by MAXUS - May 29, 04
SMS users are open to brand marketing - April 22, 04
Celebrity Endorsements Inside Out: A CyberMedia Study - April
17, 04
Understanding women Study by MCI - March 20, 04
Consultation Note on Issues relating to Broadcasting and Cable
Services -
Jan 01,
04
SMS Selling Made Smarter?!- Dec 04, 03
ICCO World report October 2003- Nov 20, 03
DTH Studyby Initiative media- sep 23, 03
IRS Study- sep 17, 03
CyberMedia Research - July 17, 03
Media Financial Wellbeing - A Study by ATG - June 06, 03
The "Surer" way of consumer contact -May 15 03
TOWN & COUNTRY - June 24 02
All
in All!
Mudra
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