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SESSION TWO

exchange4media Symposium: Getting more bang for the media buck in the CAS scenario

The Almighty Rupee, that's what it all boils down to. With the implementation of CAS, would there be a reallocation of ad revenue on accord of the changing viewership? How would the onset of CAS effect data collection and audience measurement? Would media planners now have to move to gut feel planning as opposed to data based planning? Would the arrival of the CAS regime put a question mark on the credibility of TAM?

The second session of the Exchange4media Symposium grappled with some of these key questions and the distinguished members on the panel were Chandramouli of Onida, Ashutosh Srivastava of Mindshare, Ravi Kiran of Starcom, Sandeep Tarkas of MPG, Raj Nayak - Media Expert and LV Krishnan of TAM. Vikram Sakuja from Mindshare moderated the session.

RAJ NAYAK:
Raj Nayak discussed some of the challenges that would materialize before media planners in the times to come. He states, " Audience measurement is in for a big change. In the four metros, the parameters involved would be CNS, Non CNS, FTA and Pay, in the non-metros the parameters involved would be CNS and Non CNS. Media planners would have to learn to deal with new numbers and would have to take a joint call with the client based on gut feel. Hitherto they had always relied on numbers." How reliable would the viewership data be under the CAS reign? Nayak elaborates that with the coming of set top boxes, the universe would be fluid and ever changing. A distinct possibility, according to him, would be that households opt for different pay channels in different months resulting in a dilution of TRP's.

Nayak dwelt on the widespread implications of CAS in terms of channels and a shift in ad revenue. He asserts, " The way I see it, most of the mass channels have to go FTA in order to keep their business stable. The initial 6-12 months would see the existing pay channels avoid all long-term deals; the direct result would be inventory shifting to FTA channels which would bring in a better yield for these channels. As time goes by, FTA channels may get so much ad revenue that they decide to go pay. All in all, CAS would bring in greater transparency when it comes to declaration of revenue, the content would be the king under this regime."

He summed up his thoughts on an optimistic note. Says he, "There was a time when the main broadcasters turned off the signals from one of the MSO'S but life went on. Things were as normal as ever. The way I see it, there are the initial teething problems for the industry and at the end of the day, CAS would benefit all concerned."

V Chandramouli
Chandramouli, Onida put forward a brief chart on the changes in content consumption on account of CAS. As per Chandramouli's predictions, the premium all adults market would see a greater penetration of set top boxes while the mass market of males would either latch on to news or buy default programming on FTA channels which includes movies or game shows. In the mass-market females, there would be tendency to
stick with regional channels or movies and to explore alternate media. As far as the children's market is concerned, there would be a definite drop in television watching, though a partial recovery can be made via movies. Chandramouli sums up the changes in viewership patterns by saying, "On the whole, there would be a shift to default programming and a significant reduction in the time spent on television."

Chandramouli swiftly steps into the shoes of the concerned advertiser when he voices the concerns of most corporate houses in the field. Says he, "As an advertiser, I cannot spend more in order to get the same GRP's. There should be no GRP/CPRP negatives. I expect my media planner to be alive to the situation, he should be in a position to do some quick data processing and be prepared to go in for predictive planning as opposed to data based planning. He adds, "Advertisers need media planners to turn this problem into an opportunity. While advertisers can look for an alternate route and invest in FTA's, the underlying problem is - Which are the FTA's that can be picked? These are some of the issues that media planners need to address. Also, there ought to be a significant drop in the rates on channels with lower GRP deliveries."

LV Krishnan
LV Krishnan, a representative from the TAM camp, put forward his perspective on the impact of CAS and set top boxes in the key areas. Krishnan asserts, "There are about 4.4 million homes in 4 metros. CAS would gain ground only in the city areas and not in the areas that lie on the outskirts. Calcutta has only 38% of its population within the city, hence the impact wouldn't be as much. On the other hand, in Chennai, 70% of the viewing occurs through FTA channels, hence there wouldn't be much of an impact there either." He adds that the case in question would only be Mumbai and Delhi, 75% of the television viewing occurs through pay channels in Mumbai while Delhi sees a corresponding figure of 72%.

Krishnan grapples with the set top box scenario and puts forward two possibilities. He states, " If STB's are not available in the right number, there would be so much ad revenue going to FTA's that these channels might then have to start bumping off shots, they might also increase ad rates as per demand. On the flip side, if the STB's are available in the right number, there would be too many channels to watch and people wuld surf channels quite a bit. This in turn would give lesser value to commercials."

Krishnan more or less conforms to Chandramouli's assessment of changed viewership patterns; he believes that CAS would be accompanied by reduced time spent on television viewing. In the same breath, Krishnan asserts that TAM was fully equipped to deal with the changes in viewership patterns. He reveals that TAM would be keeping a tab on CAS homes through the CASES a baseline research that would measure the penetration of CAS, profile of CAS homes, channel penetration and growth rates across months. Lastly, Krishnan summed up his session stating that TAM was going plug the CAS situation via new technology that had been procured, though he refused to discuss details.

Ashutosh Stivastava
Ashutosh Srivastava touches upon niche channels and opportunities presented by the CAS situation. He claims, " Here is a chance for niche channels to be really niche in character. With the ongoing segmentation of the audiences, niche channels would not be pressurized to turn mass based in appeal. They can concentrate on a certain strata of the audience and survive. For media planners however, it would mean a changing media landscape and greater numbers. On the whole, CAS is not something to be feared, its impact would not be as earth shattering as is expected. For example, as far as brands are concerned, only 10 -15% FMCG categories will be impacted. Again, in the transition period, Calcutta will not be a problem market, neither will be Chennai."

Sandeep Tarkas
Sandeep Tarkas draws attention to the fact that content would hail supreme under the CAS regime. He maintains, "Earlier, there was a Sunday early morning band, which used to occupy primary importance for the viewer. With content not maintaining the same pace, audiences have a tendency to change their viewing habits, which could be one scenario applicable to CAS. Once the audience is not getting certain channels, they would simply shift to whatever is available." Tarkas predicts a decrease of 25% in the average viewing time.

Ravi Kiran
Ravi Kiran addresses the overall impact of CAS on brands, he asserts, "CAS would not have the same kind of impact on all the brands. FMCG's may not be affected much by it. There are several parameters in the picture such as which brand you have, the type of category it is, the rank it holds in the market, the treatment that needs to be given to it etc. The solutions to the problem differ from brand to brand. As far as the launch of a brand is concerned, there is no brand that depends solely on television." Kiran maintains that there could be some amount of good news to the advertisers as many broadcasters may be looking for sweetening the deal in the CAS scenario.

Would Set top boxes be in a position to generate viewership data? The discussion swung into a debate as the question was thrown to the audience as well. Yogesh Radhakrishnan who was a part of the audience in the second session stated, " Set Top boxes have the ability to generate both connectivity data and viewership data. This has been visible abroad. In India, the situation would depend on the type of set top boxes taken on by the MSO's. I am unsure about the technological capacities of the boxes taken on by the MSO's here."

Krishnan was quick to respond to the question. He stated, " You cannot get viewership data from Set top boxes. The Smart card is obviously not smart enough. Though it can capture household figures, it cannot capture individual viewing. Besides, TAM is a credible, authentic and an independent party, we have the right methodology and the right expertise. People trust our data as it comes from a reliable source."

The second session of the Exchange4media Symposium highlighted the fact that all the panelists appeared to be in complete agreement about the fact that CAS was long overdue. While most may see regulation as a necessary step, ambiguities in the pricing, viewership patterns, reliability of future data and data distribution still remain vital concerns.