The Delhi elections have led to a surprise loss for BJP with AAP scoring well with voters.
Simplify 360 tried to figure out what the social media buzz said about the three prominent parties ----BJP, AAP and Congress; and their respective candidates. They analyzed mentions across social platforms on 4 main criteria ---- Influence, Spread, Prominence and Favourability. On the basis of their scores in each criterion, they were then assigned a SSI score.
In terms of the first criteria, Arvind Kejriwal was the clear leader with 61 per cent of all tweets and posts mentioning him. Kiran Bedi, BJP’s designated nominee was second with 31 per cent of all posts. The buzz around Kejriwal, despite the intense discussions that were generated once Bedi was announced as BJP candidate is surprising and shows that despite not enjoying the best of times in recent months, the AAP leader does command attention among the voter base, and the result is now evident.
In terms of prominence, i.e. the total numbers of links, images, video, etc. shared, once again the media savvy Kejriwal edged out the competition with a score of 59, while Kiran Bedi 33 and Ajay Maken from Congress was at a lowly 9. Both Kejriwal and Bedi have been known to be social media friendly and once again it worked in their favour. Congress’ campaigning for Delhi has been strangely muted and this reflects on the performance of their candidate on social media too.
Perhaps the most important factor to consider is the favourability score or the amount of positive mentions that were received by the candidates. Surprisingly, considering recent weeks, Kiran Bedi managed to edge out Kejriwal scoring 52 against Kejriwal’s 40 and Maken’s 8.
The BJP’s professional use of social media was one of the highlights of their historic triumph in the Lok Sabha elections and given the lessons learnt by them and the resources at their disposal, it would hardly have been surprising that Kiran Bedi had a higher ‘Spread’ score, with 35. However, it is interesting to notice that Kejriwal was not that far behind with a score of 33.
Based on all these factors, Simplify 360 calculated the final SSI score for each party and based on this the projected number of seats that we can expect them to win.
Kiran Bedi with a SSI score of 38 could not shake off the challenge from Kejriwal, who had an SSI score of 51, while Maken had an overall score of just 11.