The International Data Corporation has estimated a 10.1 per cent growth in the worldwide sales of personal computers.
A study by the IDC said that 195.1 million units of PCs would be sold in 2005. The growth in sales, in terms of revenue, would be by 3.1 per cent to be at $201 billion, said the study.
"Commercial PC growth is expected to slow down in 2005 as the recent recovery matures, but should remain at a relatively robust 11.3 per cent while consumer PC sales growth is expected to be eight per cent," the study said.
Despite the relatively weak consumer market, the demand in the commercial and portable markets continues to drive growth, said Loren Loverdae, director of IDC's worldwide quarterly PC tracker.
Lenovo's acquisition of IBM's PC division stands to gain from this growth. "Lenovo gains the global reach and scale to compete internationally while strengthening its position in relatively high-growth commercial and portable markets," said an analyst at IDC.
The growth of PC sales in the Asia-Pacific region will be maintaining a double-digit growth despite being limited by rising interest rates and lower growth trends in China, and weak demand in Korea.
In the US, a commercial growth of 11.4 per cent will drive the PC market. In western Europe, growth will slow down to 10 per cent in 2005 from 17 per cent in 2004.
In Japan, the struggling consumer segment should finally return to positive growth in 2005 but slowing commercial growth and already high portable penetration will limit the overall market growth, the study said.
The year 2005 will see PC replacement working in favour of PC vendors, according to Gartner.
Subsequently, the replacement cycle in commercial segment will slow down in 2006, affecting even the largest PC vendors, according to the research firm.
PC growth is forecast to average 5.7 per cent annually from 2006 through 2008, half of the 11.3 per cent average of 2003, through 2005, it said. Emerging markets will account for more than 60 per cent of PC market growth from 2006 to 2008.
The PC industry will face global consolidation with three of the top ten vendors exiting in the market by 2007 due to slow growth rates coupled with reduced profit margins, according to Gartner's analysis prior to Lenovo's acquisition of IBM's PC business.