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Election Tracker: Boost for Kejriwal; AIADMK outscores DMK in favourability

22-April-2014
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Election Tracker: Boost for Kejriwal; AIADMK outscores DMK in favourability

Arvind Kejriwal saw a burst in favourability last week on Twitter, with positive sentiment for the AAP leader increasing by 16 points. In the previous week, Kejriwal had a favourability score of 71 with 13.36 per cent positive comments. Last week, these numbers jumped significantly with a favourability score of 87 and 21.1 per cent positive comments.

Meanwhile, with Tamil Nadu going to the polls this week, we took a look at the comparative chatter between arch rivals AIADMK and DMK. The DMK-INC alliance in 2004 was a major factor in Congress clinching power at the Centre. However, this time the situation is more complex, with the Congress-DMK alliance no longer in existence and the BJP-led NDA forming an alliance with five local parties to take on the other three. Opinion polls seem to suggest that the Modi wave would help the NDA alliance in the state. An analysis of the buzz around AIADMK and DMK adds an interesting perspective to how things might shape up in the state. The ruling AIADMK is seen to be leading the DMK in most of the aspects. For example, AIADMK has a favourability score of 93 as compared to DMK’s score of 86, while the former also leads the latter when it comes to spread and prominence. A breakdown of geographical scores from this region for individual leaders and regional parties might give a better idea about the sentiment in the state, but it seems that we could see a two-horse race in Tamil Nadu between the NDA alliance and the AIADMK, if this week’s numbers are anything to go by.

Echoing something that we have seen since starting the Election Tracker, the general trends when it comes to the political scenario, at least in how Twitter users see it, has remained the same. For example, Modi continues to be the most talked about politician with consistently high favourability scores. The BJP, on the other hand, has always been behind AAP and INC when it comes to positive sentiment. By portraying Narendra Modi as the face of their campaign, BJP has, in some way, managed to deflect attention from their own shortcomings, but it does not seem as if the ‘janta’ are willing to forget. And by concentrating their focus on promoting Modi, one cannot help but feel that BJP has wasted an opportunity to portray itself in a better light.

On the other hand, the Indian National Congress still surprisingly scores high points in terms of favourability (Their score this week was 87, the highest among the top three parties). In fact, the party has outscored the BJP in terms of positive sentiment in almost every week since February. However, the lack of any strong personality among the central leadership and the absence of a clearly defined social media strategy means that the sentiments around individual leaders lag behind those of other parties. For example, BJP president Rajnath Singh has been a consistent fixture in the Top 10 list and has remarkably better scores than leaders from Congress, at times, even outscoring Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi.

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