Carat has unveiled its proprietary study on 2010 predictions in the Asia Pacific region. According to the study, the markets in the APAC region that are expected to witness high digital growth are India (26 per cent), China (25 per cent), Hong Kong (20 per cent), and Thailand (20 per cent).
The shift towards digital is expected from magazine, radio and newspaper spends.
Magazines are expected to be flat (0.3 per cent growth), whereas newspaper spends are expected to increase at a slower pace of 2.4 per cent.
In terms of media, TV spends are expected to grow by 4.7 per cent, whereas online spends will grow the fastest among all medium, with 12 per cent across the Asia Pacific region.
In terms of share of media in 2010, television would account for 52 per cent spends; newspapers, 20 per cent; online, 11 per cent; OOH, 8.5 per cent; magazines, 5.3 per cent; and the rest of 3.2 per cent on radio and cinema. The growth in OOH is fuelled by improved digitisation of OOH and interactive OOH (screen-based, interactive screens, kiosks, etc.).
Continuing to build the momentum from this year, Indonesia, the Philippines and China are predicted to grow by 16 per cent, 10 per cent, and 9 per cent, respectively. Australia and Japan are forecasted to be flat year-on-year for 2010.
Advertising Expenditure forecasts (in US$ Mn)
Inflation estimates for 2010
Overall, inflation (excluding Japan) is expected to be about 8-10 per cent, with TV expected to increase by 5 per cent, print by 3 per cent, out-of-home by 4 per cent and online by 5 per cent.
In line with the advertising spends growth, Indonesia, China and India are expected to witness a higher inflation at 13 per cent, 12 per cent and 10 per cent, respectively. New Zealand and Japan are likely to witness a deflationary media prices with -5 per cent, and -3 per cent deflation, which mirrors the ad-spend pattern for these two markets.
What marketers should do
As the market conditions keep improving some of the country’s media inflations would move northwards. Marketers keen on leveraging the advantage should approach media with a long-term view and lock-in 2-3 year deals, with necessary flexibility.
Traditional media owners are realising the potential of mobile and digital and are rapidly getting in these spaces to increase their revenues. This would further help to accelerate the internet usage in certain markets.
Given the fact that such TV and print media owners are already content-rich, and would be able to ‘cross-sell’ their digital platforms to their existing users (TV viewers or newspaper readers), there is an opportunity for advertisers to partner these ventures, beyond advertising space and ‘own/ co-create’ some of these platforms.
Marketers should thus look at maximising their investments by approaching such opportunities through ‘multi-media-content deals’, and thus truly being channel neutral in reaching their consumers.