In its latest Advertising Expenditure Forecast Report, ZenithOptimedia predicts that global ad expenditure will grow 4.7% in 2016, reaching US$ 579 Billion by the end of the year. The global ad market has enjoyed stable growth since 2011, with growth rates ranging between 4% and 5% a year, and this trend is expect to stay for the rest of the forecast period.
Internet Advertising Share to Grow
According to the report, television is currently the dominant advertising medium, with a 38% share of total ad spend in 2015. In 2018, however, the internet is expected to overtake television to become the largest single advertising medium. However, one of the reasons for television’s loss of share is the rapid growth of paid search, which is essentially a direct response channel (together with classified), while television is the pre-eminent brand awareness channel and it is expected to remain so for many years to come.
The report further adds that audiovisual advertising as a whole – television plus online video – is gaining share of display advertising. Television offers unparalleled capacity to build reach, while online video offers pinpoint targeting and personalisation of marketing messages. Both are powerful tools for establishing brand awareness and associations. The latest forecast estimates that audiovisual advertising will account for a record 48.4% of display advertising in 2015, up from 44.1% in 2010, and expected to reach 48.9% in 2018.
Moreover, in 2018 mobile advertising is expected to overtake desktop and account for 50.2% of all internet advertising. Programmatic advertising will account for more than half of digital display advertising (53%) and will increase its share to 60% in 2016. Programmatic advertising is forecasted to grow another 34% in 2016 and 26% in 2017, at which point two thirds of global display will be programmatic according to the latest estimates.
India: Hot-Spot of Adspend Growth
Given the fact that Fast-track Asian economies--China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam are growing extremely rapidly as they adopt Western technology and practices, while benefiting from the rapid inflow of funds from investors, China alone accounts for 74% of ad spend in Fast-track Asia, so its slowdown naturally will have huge effect on the region as a whole. The report predicts ad expenditure in Fast-track Asia to grow 8.9% in 2015, and at an average rate of 8.4% a year between 2015 and 2018, down from 14.7% a year between 2009 and 2014.
Though the adspend growth is slowing down in three out of the four BRIC markets that were responsible for much of last decade’s ad market expansion. India continues to remain a success story, making it a distinct hot-spot of adspend growth. With ad spends growing at double-digit annual rates here, the report expects the market to expand by US$3 Billion between 2015 and 2018.
Elaborating further on India’s growth prediction, Anupriya Acharya, Group CEO, ZenithOptimedia India says, "It’s been over eighteen months of the new government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Last year this time it had captured the collective consciousness of the country and we entered 2015 with a strongly positive consumer and business sentiment. This irrational exuberance has tempered down to a more rational optimism and all the current economic and sentiment indicators suggest that the forward view remains positive. Our growth forecast for India Ad-expenditures for 2016 holds at 13%. TV largely fuels this at 15% and Print - newspapers - at 10%. Digital is expected to grow upwards of 20% while all other media are expected to grow at 5-10%. E-commerce, telecom, mobile phones expected to have the maximum growth followed by automobiles and FMCGs."
ZenithOptimedia’s Advertising Expenditure Forecasts report contains forecasts of advertising expenditure by medium for 80 countries.