Warc, the marketing intelligence service, expects global advertising spend (based on 12 major markets) to increase +4.8 per cent at current prices in 2012, according to its latest International Ad Forecast.
This increase masks the underlying caution of marketers due to considerable economic uncertainty, and can be largely attributed to predicted growth in the US market (+4.1 per cent), which will be inflated by the quadrennial effect from extra political and Olympic spend.
Of the 12 markets covered by the forecast, the emerging markets are expected to record the strongest growth in 2012. China is predicted to increase expenditure by +15.5 per cent, followed by Russia (+14.0 per cent), India (+9.3 per cent) and Brazil (+8.9 per cent).
But the BRIC nations are showing signs of weakness in the current economic climate. If we take forecast inflation into account, China and Russia maintain their positions as the two fastest-growing markets, but Brazil, in third, sees its projected growth fall to +3.4 per cent, while India's growth in real terms drops to just +1.1 per cent. Only the European countries are forecast to achieve lower growth than this. Across all 12 markets, ad spend is expected to increase +2.1 per cent in real terms in 2012.
Suzy Young, Data Editor Warc, said, “The outlook for advertising spend is fairly positive, considering the economic turmoil in the eurozone and fears that the BRIC economies are stalling. Quadrennial factors are currently providing the lift for 2012 but should the global economy experience another shock, advertising spend may plummet.”
Advertising spend is predicted to record a slightly higher growth rate of +5.2 per cent in 2013 compared with 2012, equivalent to +2.5 per cent growth after accounting for inflation. These latest forecasts assume modest global economic growth for 2012, improving in 2013, with no major external shocks, such as a breakup of the eurozone.