Industry predictions for 2012 global ad spend growth have fallen by almost a full percentage point since April, according to the latest Consensus Ad Forecast from Warc, the marketing intelligence service.
Warc estimates the industry consensus for worldwide ad spend growth has fallen from 5.3 per cent to 4.4 per cent for 2012, and from 5.4 per cent to 4.9 per cent next year amid concerns about the global economy.
The figures are in local currency at current prices before adjusting for inflation, and are based on Warc’s weighted average of predictions from media forecasters, monitoring groups, Warc’s in-house team and other industry bodies.
Since April, growth expectations have been trimmed in 11 of the 13 markets covered by the quarterly Consensus Forecast, with Italy, Spain and India witnessing the biggest reductions.
In contrast, China and Russia are predicted to record the biggest increases in ad spend in 2012, with growth of 14.7 per cent and 12.0 per cent respectively. Similar levels of growth should be maintained for both markets next year.
Ad spend growth by country, 2012 vs. 2011
Of the main media, spend on the internet is expected to increase 14.8 per cent in 2012, an increase of 0.6 percentage point since our April forecast. All other media have had expectations scaled back in recent months, but cinema (+4.7 per cent) and TV (+4.6 per cent) are both predicted to grow above trend.
Ad spend growth by medium, 2012 vs. 2011
Suzy Young, Data Editor, Warc said, “The lack of resolution to the crisis in the Eurozone is continuing to impact confidence. Global advertising spend is holding up thanks to the Olympics, the US presidential election and rapid growth in China.”