Even before their release much awaited Bollywood flicks like ‘Don’, ‘Umrao Jaan’ and ‘Dhoom 2’ have been written off as miserable flops according to the Euro RSCG Bollywood Predictameter study. The study further states that ‘Munnabhai Lagey Raho’ would be a bigger hit than ‘Kabhie Alvida Na Kehna’, while ‘The Killer’ will make more bucks than Naseeruddin Shah’s directorial debut, ‘Yun Hota To Kya Hota’.
The Euro RSCG Predictameter is a forecasting tool that aims at providing insights into any given category. Euro RSCG has used this tool to predict the fate of 18 of the top draw Bollywood movies to be released later this year.
An official communiqué stated, “Critical to the science of predicting the future are a set of people who Euro RSCG calls ‘Prosumers’. Prosumers are a special group of customers – they are more knowledgeable in a given category, they love new products, they search for the best value products and they are very demanding. But most of all, prosumers love sharing their knowledge and their opinions with everyone who cares to listen.”
Bollywood successes are increasingly becoming a function of marketing as against purely the quality of the film. Successes of ‘Krrish’ and ‘Rang De Basanti’ are examples of this phenomenon. Although movie marketing is fast catching up in India, it has been a key tool to launch movies in Hollywood for several years now. Being a more mature industry, the efforts that marketing makes to create noise around the film are researched and measured very regularly in the West.
The Euro RSCG Bollywood Predictameter is the first ever attempt at successfully measuring the influence of marketing and buzz on the fate of a film. It based its results on a research conducted in four markets – Mumbai, Delhi, Lucknow and Bangalore – administered across 1,200 respondents. The respondents were first exposed to critical information about each movie before their opinions were recorded.
According to the Euro RSCG Bollywood Predictameter; the ‘Munnabhai’ sequel is slated to be the most successful movie of the year. Close to 61 per cent of the prosumers indicated that Munna and Circuit (two lead characters of the movie) would earn ‘Superhit’ status for the movie. With 36 per cent of prosumers indicating that ‘Kabhie Alvida Na Kehna’ would be a superhit; it came in a distant second to ‘Munnabhai’.
Prosumers have also given the thumbs up to Emraan Hashmi-starrer ‘The Killer’ and have almost written off the mega-star cast of ‘Yun Hota To Kya Hota’. 64 per cent of the prosumers believe that ‘The Killer’ is going to be a hit.
Close to 57 per cent of the prosumers have indicated that both ‘Don’ and ‘Dhoom 2’ would be stupendous flops. The novelty value for the products does not exist at all, according to the prosumers. However, consumer opinion indicates that both ‘Don’ and ‘Dhoom 2’ will be ‘average hits’.
The new Rajshri venture, ‘Vivaah’ slated for November and starring Shahid Kapur does not have enough traction within the prosumers as 61 per cent have no opinion about the movie. And the other Sanjay Dutt-Arshad Warsi caper ‘Anthony Kaun Hai’ will not really get the cash registers ringing as 57 per cent believe it will be an average grosser.
Finally, the alleged Aishwarya-Abhishek affair does not seem to have done enough to save ‘Umrao Jaan’. For all its publicity hype, close to 57 per cent of the prosumers believe its going to flop miserably.
The communiqué further stated, “Well, the verdict is out. It’s only Munnabhai who will capture the imagination of the prosumers this season.”