Tough times are ahead for the advertising industry, with the slowdown further tightening its grip. The advertising expenditure market is expected to grow around only 4.7 per cent in 2009 to reach Rs 23,755 crore, as compared to 14.3 per cent in 2008. This was revealed in GroupM’s study titled ‘This Year, Next Year – India Media Forecasts’.
It may be recalled that Pitch-Madison Media Advertising Outlook 2009, published in January 2009, had also projected a low growth in the advertising industry at 2 per cent.
As per the GroupM study, the share of advertising revenue for newspapers and magazines are expected to see a drop – 41 per cent in the case of newspapers as against 44 per cent in 2008; and 3 per cent in case of magazines as against 4 per cent in 2008. Print has taken a beating towards the latter half of 2008 with significant drops in inventory and will continue to do so. The only respite is the General Elections.
Television is expected to register a marginal rise to 38 per cent as compared to 37 per cent in 2008. In fact, TV has done better than expected in 2008, on the back of strong viewership. Given that it is the medium of choice for the categories that are continuing to spend well, it faces a less risky future in the coming year.
There would be no change in the share of advertising revenue for the radio and outdoor media, which would remain at 4 per cent and 6 per cent, respectively. Like the print industry, the outdoor space, too, might see a drop in inventory due to city level municipal regularisation drives. Radio, on the other hand, is expected to do reasonably well as it has established a widespread network of markets and is a relatively less expensive medium than print and TV.
The response driven nature of digital media will ensure that they continue to do well, though growth will be a little lower that that seen in past years.