Guest Column

Who Would Have Thought!
Jasmin Sohrabji, Managing Director, OMD India


One often wonders what happens to all the articles, comments and predictions industry experts make and whether anyone really cares to know if they came through or not! For example, who would have thought a cricketing event would scale the heights it did; or who would have thought it would take one show x multiple repeats to place a rank newcomer in the top GEC slot. Given the task to write about the media drivers of 2009, below are a few of my observations…while I practice my 'who would have thought…' expression if trends go horribly wrong!

Media will continue to evolve along a path already chartered, global and local slowdowns notwithstanding. For some of us who were around in the last Asian recession, the industry clung dearly to the traditional and safe paths… television survived, digital vanished! Interestingly, it will be the FMCG culprits of old who will keep the faith or walk the talk. In fact, Mobile will develop into its own… in much the same way that C&S got its own stature in the media mix, separate from Television.

While we have not seen any sure signs of a pervasive or rampant ad budget pull back, looking to take advantage of media vulnerability could well be our own undoing. Over the years we have seen a declining quality of the GRP, reducing it to a buying leveller rather than a planner's metric. Those fortunate few who can invest in proprietary and available (fusion) studies can, and will elevate its relevance back to planning. But there exists a large and looming fallout of any economic slowdown -- a risk of editorial invasion! As advertisers put budget pressures and demands on media, we run the risk of editorial invasion in the name of value added integration. Ironically, a potentially recessive environment can bring us back on a quality track, or damage a truly effective communication channel - the choice is ours to refrain or succumb. I hope our industry will value long term partnership over short-term opportunities.

The one key driver of multiple channels and touch-points will be our agility in adopting a trend we are already witnessing -- the state and zonal divide will be replaced by the tier pyramid. It may not happen so soon so formally, but we should expect to see a lot more Tier-level media planning as opposed to HSM, South, etc. When we do get there, we ourselves will have safeguarded the performing mediums. We would have given diverse mediums a geographically, contextually relevant playground.

Among them who will be thrown a challenge will be print. A truly historic medium, never a doubt can be cast on its efficacy. Even as news channels mushroom and multiply and the web is there for the taking, the second and third newspapers entered our homes. While television still struggles with two-TV-set homes, newspapers defied logic. That's a hard to rid Indian habit - we love our morning dailies! But currently all's not well there. In the best of times the medium's ad pricing defied logic, in the worst of times nothing changes! Logic better prevail.

The other one to caution is television's techno avatar, DTH. Started as a forced entry into sectional metro homes, the medium took on a life of its own growing beyond expectations (another 'who would have thought' moment?). It took C&S penetration forever to get the numbers it rightfully deserved, given the absolute visible benefit that C&S programming brought its starved viewers. At an affordable cost, at that. DTH has still a large available market to play and grow in, but may hit an eventual wall where viewing quality after a point is not held at premium. On a personal front, I hope not.

For FM, India will always be known as the home of the laggards. We sure took our time getting to a relevant place, but now the medium's taken root. And it's not going away -- more strength to them! You know you are here to stay when the research guy's start seriously investing, it's a sign. I have always believed the medium's strength is not in its numbers, but as a truly creative communication platform, an area the medium needs to partner and work harder with.

In the final analysis, hopes will be pinned not just on consumers viewing, reading, listening or surfing but most of all spending. And should things come to test, the media drivers will be guided by another key decision, should marketers defend their market share through discount-led advertising or reassure loyal customers through a brand building exercise? The hard choices we will need to make will not be where to communicate, but what to communicate.

Who would have thought!